BetOnMarkets Morning Update - 04/07/08

The FTSE is currently indicating a flat open, as we approach the first Friday of the Q3. With the US off on holidays, we believe that the volume of todays session will be low and boring. Traders do have a few things on their mind, with the ECB hinting at the fact that this might be the only rate hike, UK traders are wondering just how much room will the BOE have. A lower interest rate outlook is a positive thing for equities, and we are expecting an extra boost of 100 points for the FTSE.

Oil is continuing its push to hit 150; we feel that once the peak is hit, traders will do some profit taking. This will cause a fall in the price, probably back to the 130 level. Gold managed to survive the US positive news, only giving back 10$ per ounce. We believe that the trend is strong, and we will see 950 within the next week.

Betonmarkets.com

BetOnMarkets Morning Update - 03/07/08

The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply lower opening, following in the footsteps of the Asian markets, which are down more then 1% in morning trade. Record oil, more downgrades in the financial sector expect to weight heavily on the FTSE when it opens. We expect the market to be light until 12.30PM GMT, when US will release its employment data, which will set the tone for the rest of the day. We expect losses which will be heavier then expected by analyst, looking for a number around the 100 thousand jobs lost in June.

Oil hit another record, as investors are now using oil as a hedge against the US dollar. With the EU rumoured to increase its benchmark interest rate today, which would strengthen the Euro versus the dollar, more and more traders are buying oil contracts as a double bet. Benefit from the increasing price of oil, and the weakening US dollar, in which the oil contract trades. We believe that oil will touch 150 before the end of July.

Betonmarkets.com

BetOnMarkets.com Morning Update

The FTSE is currently indicating a sharply higher open, as traders are betting that the Construction spending data which will be released at 8.30am today will be better then expected. While this will be another month that spending slowed down in the sector, we believe that most analysts are being extremely bearish, especially after yesterdays huge miss by the manufacturing numbers.

Oil should continue its volatile trade as traders are awaiting the US inventory numbers. Some expect the inventory to fall for the sixth time in seven weeks, as consumers have been cutting back on all unnecessary and some necessary trips. Gold continued its advance as traders continue to buy precious metals as a hedge against the weakening US dollar.

We expect gold to touch 950 dollars per ounce.

Betonmarkets.com

Stocks down, Gold and Oil up

Financial markets were a sea of red numbers last week as the classic ‘Fade the Fed’ trade played out. The initial reaction to Wednesday’s US interest rate decision was neutral to positive, then the selling set in and hardly stopped. Thursday’s mini rally did a very poor job of papering over the cracks in the global economy. On Friday those cracks were wide open for all to see with housing and financial stocks hit the hardest. Barclays in particular was back to square one, erasing all gains from the start of the week, as investors took a second look at their fund raising plans in light of Goldman’s predictions of further write downs for major western banks. Citi Group was also floored on similar sentiment, falling to its lowest level since 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial average ended the week down 4.2% and nearly 8% down over the last fortnight. The FTSE faired little better, falling 2.88% on the week and 6.26% over the fortnight. The twin evils of Gold and Oil were again the sectors in demand, as investors looked to profit from further economic turmoil, and hedge their bets against inflation. Oil refused to budge below $130 and set a new all time high of $143. $150 a barrel, scoffed at by some just a few months ago, is looking increasingly more likely and is surely now only a matter of time.

Some positive cheer came with US consumer spending rising as Bush’s stimulus cheques hit. While this lift at least created a pause from the continuous stream of bad news, market participants were wary of reading too much into what may be a short term patch for the US economy.

Despite a shortened trading week with Independence Day on Friday the 4th of July, it is a very busy week ahead. Currency markets will be eyeing Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision and accompanying statement. The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by a quarter of a percent to 4.25%. With this starting to be priced in already, market participants will be more interested in the prospects of a string of inflation fighting rate rises from the ECB.

Thursday also sees the all important US Non Farm Payroll data brought forward a day because of the holiday on Friday. This more than anything could have the greatest impact on currency and equity markets for the new month of July. The UK certainly doesn’t escape without any top tier data with two lots of house price announcements. Nationwide release their data on Tuesday and The Halifax House Price index is tentatively planned for Thursday. The news is expected to be dire from both these announcements with Stephen Nickell, the head of the Prime Minister’s housing planning unit predicting that the UK housing market won’t boom again until 2015. To make matters worse, recent data shows that British households are more indebted than any other country in recorded history. 173% of household incomes are owed in debts. This is higher even than Japan’s peak in 1990 that preceded decades of deflation. Barclays added to the gloom by warning their clients to prepare for the financial storm ahead.

While Thursday was an impressive sell off, doubts remain whether the ‘puking’ point has been reached just yet. Bottom feeders will start to become interested, but the VIX options volatility index is still some way off the January and March spikes. In addition we are not seeing the same flight to safe havens such as short term fixed income, that we saw in the first quarter.


According to BetOnMarkets traders, with Gold bottoming around $860 and renewed concern over inflation, it is perhaps time for the precious metal to follow its evil twin, oil higher after a few months in the doldrums. A One Touch trade for Gold to hit $1000 again within the next two months could return 70%.

Open an account with betonmarkets.com and receive GBP20 without the need to deposit any money. Exploit this information above and start earning without risks. Insert MW-BOM in the promotional area.

BetOnMarkets Morning Update

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly weaker open, while traders are awaiting the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing index. There has been a lot of ink spent discussing the state of the UK economy, and a slowdown in the manufacturing area would cause some concern to the BOE who are currently battling inflation and hinted at rising interest rates at the next meeting. We believe that the Purchasing number will be weaker then expected and would cause the FTSE to open sharply lower.

Oil spent most of the day trading north of the 140 level. Demand from Asian countries is expected to outpace declines in the U.S. as a result we will not be getting relief anytime soon. Gold spent most of the day battling profit taking after gaining more then 3 percent last week. We believe that gold will continue its upward trend this week, as traders are betting that the US employment number , which are released on Thursday, will come out worse then many expect.

Betonmarkets.com