BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders hope to finish the year on a positive note. With no economical data releases today, we are likely to see trading limited to a small range. It is very likely that the FTSE will end this memorable year on a positive note.

Oil which is currently trading around the 39 dollars per barrel level, heading for a record annual drop, on speculation that U.S. fuel stockpiles are increasing as the recession cuts demand. While OPEC has announced that they will be cutting supplies aggressively, traders are taking the wait and see approach. The price of oil will probably stay in a tight range today.
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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders hope that the equity market surge that started in Asia spills over into UK. Early indications show that energy stocks will get the strongest boost on the FTSE, as oil prices continue to push higher in early trade. Since there will not be any economic data today, the FTSE is most likely to spend the day in positive territory.

Oil prices got a boost today, after OPEC announced that they are planning another production cut early in the New Year. The organization is hoping to boost the price of oil back above the 60 dollars per barrel mark. We expect oil prices to continue to rise moderately probably ending the week around the 45 dollar level.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a weak opening, as traders wait for the release of the UK Industrial production numbers. This data should give analysts some hints on the condition of the industrial sector and if the interest rate cuts are going to stimulate the struggling economy. The FTSE is likely to start Tuesday morning in the red.

Oil prices firmed up yesterday as OPEC spread the news that they will be cutting output at the next meeting. While it is not known how much will be cut, it will take a significant cut to bring oil prices back to a decent level. It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, but stop around the 45 dollar per barrel level.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a weak opening, as traders wait for the release of the US non farm payroll report. While this economic data is not from UK, it is significant enough to have traders from both sides of the ocean pay close attention. Analysts are expecting the NFP to show the worst job loss in more then 25 years. The FTSE will most likely end this week on a sour note.

Oil tumbled past the 45 dollar per barrel mark yesterday, as the economic contraction and record job losses world wide has forced consumers to cut back on their fuel consumption. Oil lost 19 percent of its value this week, which coincided with the declaration of a recession in UK and US. We believe that oil should try and break the 40 dollar mark, but that's probably going to have to wait until next week.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a flat open, as traders wait for the interest rate decision by the Bank of England. While a 100 basis point cut is all but assured, there are some analysts who are predicting the BOE will surprise everyone again and cut 150 basis points, this would push the FTSE into positive territory but would be disastrous for the British Pound.

Crude oil continues its free fall, as the longest economic contraction since World War II has slashed demand worldwide. Oil currently trades just under 47 dollars per barrel, as lack of production cuts by OPEC and falling demand from consumers has resulted in an oversupply situation. Oil should settle nicely around 45 dollars per barrel by the end of the week.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Markets are down today as US ADP employment report confirmed what many Americans are already experiencing; the number of people in private employment is falling. Like readily available credit, jobs are being squeezed on both sides of the Atlantic. Corporate layoffs also surged to a near 7 year high as the omens for the Friday’s big US employment report appear grim. Markets have managed to hold on to most of yesterday’s gains though as bad news about the economy is starting to be priced in. Today’s job numbers were at the lower end of estimates, but they could have been a lot worse.

Resource and energy stocks are under pressure as crude prices continue to slide. Oil prices made a century of sorts today, at $47, oil prices have now fallen exactly $100 from their peak in July. The decline is all the more remarkable when you consider the fact that oil started the year under $100. Oil majors such as BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil have managed to hold up relatively well of late though. The divergence between oil prices and oil majors may possibly be a function of oil producers being able to extract good margins as the price at the pumps hasn’t fallen to the same by the same severity as the price of crude.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Markets are on the advance today with US markets pushing global equities higher. It is difficult to ascribe a definitive reason for today’s buying and it would be easy to fall into the trap of finding a story that fits. A rebound from a sell off that went too far yesterdays is a likely contributor as are the noises from central governments that they may be willing to go further to help their ailing economies. Whatever the reason for today’s rally, investor’s a grateful that last week’s gains haven’t been wiped before the end of Tuesday.

Tesco is one of the biggest gainers today in the UK after announcing better than expected sales figures. Traders are impressed with Tesco’s flexibility in being able to compete against both the discount and higher cost super markets. Analysts had feared that discounters Aldi and Lidl would seriously dent Tesco’s earning potential, but the Cheshunt Giant has shown that it can adapt to the new competition and challenging market environment.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly weaker opening, while traders wait for the release of the of the UK purchasing managers index. Analysts are concerned that a weaker then expected number could be just the thing to continue the sell off that saw the FTSE shed more then 5%.

Oil prices have lost more then 10% of its value since OPEC has decided not to cut production during the weekend meeting. Some worry that by the time the next meeting rolls around oil prices will be below the 40 dollars per barrel mark. For today oil should stay above the 45 dollar mark.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the US ISM numbers before deciding the tone for the week. This could be a quiet week for the FTSE as there will be no economic data in UK except for the consumer confidence report on Wednesday. We could see a higher opening today if the Euro-Zone retail sales numbers come out better then expected.

Oil traders were burned this week after OPEC decided to surprise everyone by not cutting output during the weekend meeting. Oil dropped below the 55 dollars per barrel mark and it is very likely that crude will be trading below the 50 dollar level by the end of the week.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is indicating a lower opening, as traders await to see the release of the EU employment data. While its not UK data, with the EU being a huge trading partner, a slowdown there could mean harder times for the UK. The way the FTSE opens today is totally dependant on that report.

Oil is on the weaker side of things again, as concerns that OPEC will not cut enough production to offset lower demand has traders dumping the futures contract. Crude oil is trading down 63% since its all time high reached on July 11th. Oil prices will be fluctuating wildly today as traders position themselves before the OPEC announcement.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

With US markets closed for thanksgiving, European equities are enjoying a relatively quiet session. In fact, the FTSE 100 is currently trading within its tightest range since the end of September. Credit markets are continuing to unfreeze and the VIX Volatility index yesterday closed below its 50 period moving average for the first time since the start of September. Implied volatility levels remain high but at least there are signs of calm creeping into equity markets.

Recent events in India have so far failed to have too much of an impact of equities, with most European stocks moving little after this mornings opening flurry. It is worth noting the muted reaction in gold prices at this time. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven in troubled times, yet despite the traumatic events in India Gold has barely moved at all over the last couple of days. With the implied risk of world governments defaulting on their bonds increasing, one would also have expected gold prices to increase as investors seek out safe havens for their assets. There are many factors affecting the price of gold, not least the strength of the dollar, but perhaps today’s lack of reaction is another indicator that volatility is set to decrease further as we approach the last month of a tumultuous year. Just last week, 2008 was set to be the worst year on record for many markets. Although this year will undoubtedly go down in the history books no matter what happens from here, there is a chance that it won’t end as it began.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly stronger opening, as traders are finally able to take their eyes off the US markets for the next couple of days and just focus on UK fundamentals. Based on GDP news released yesterday, UK is entering a recession and analysts are looking to the government on hints of a how they plan to get the British economy back on track. There is a very strong chance that the FTSE will experience a low volume day.

Oil falls weaker this morning, as concerns over lower demand intensify. OPEC has yet to react, but is rumored to cut production again at next months meeting. The only question is, will they cut enough to actually make a difference? Most analysts are betting that they will not. With that being said, look for oil to trade in a tight range today due to the American Thanksgiving.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Despite a raft of dire US economic announcements, global markets have managed to put some distance between the day’s lows and current levels. This in itself is an encouraging sign, as markets could have easily taken today’s US durable goods figures and PMI numbers as a cue to sell off significantly. The FTSE and most other European markets are certainly down on the day, but the falls are nothing compared to the all out capitulation we’ve seen of late. US markets are mixed with the Dow down by roughly the same margin that the tech heavy Nasdaq is up.

UK oil stocks were amongst the heaviest fallers this morning, but have since recovered from the lows as crude oil prices rally slightly from $50. It is hoped that the announced Chinese interest rate cut will restart the Chinese economy, which was the biggest driver of the oil boom in recent years.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly weaker opening, while traders wait for the release of the of the UK GDP numbers. After seeing the US economy officially enter a recession, yesterdays traders worry if UK is the next major country to follow. Most analysts are expecting exactly that. Unless there is an upside surprise, the FTSE is most likely to spend the day in the red.

Oil was hurt yesterday as worries about a slowing economy were renewed when data showed that the United States officially entered a recession. Today, around London close, we will receive the weekly inventory data, which will determine the next short term direction for oil.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a flat open, as traders realize that todays trading will be dictated by the US GDP numbers. Everyone will be watching to see if the numbers will show a contraction, which would indicate an official recession. This could result in the FTSE giving back most of their gains earned on Monday.

Oil jumped back to life on Monday gaining more then 9%, however there are concerns that the rally was more of a last gasp rather then a start of a new trend. Should crude add to those gains, we should see oil jump back into the 60 dollars per barrel mark

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BetOnMarkets - Gold, Its a safe bet ?

Last week US equities ended a volatile week with big rallies on Friday, but these only came after the benchmark S&P 500 index had plunged to levels not seen for over a decade on Thursday. Despite Friday's 6%+ rallies on the Dow Jones and S&P 500, those markets still finished the week down 5.31% and 8.39% respectively. After months of bailouts, mini rallies, rate cuts, and false dawns, investors threw in the towel. On Thursday, there was a panicked flight to quality, as the yield on the shortest term US treasury bonds sank to near zero. Money is flooding to what is perceived to the safest haven in these troubled times. The panic pushed investors into bonds, breaking records for that market. The yield on four-week Treasury bills fell to 0.045 %, and the three-month bill was yielding just 0.03 %, as investors rushed for safety.
The cost of insuring against investment grade companies defaulting shot up to its highest level since the crisis began. Worse still, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway fund has seen the cost of its credit default swaps shoot to 5 times the level they traded at in June. At current levels, the CDS prices are implying that Berkshire is more likely to go bust than Morgan Stanley. When the Dow was trading around 13,000, Buffet used derivates to effectively bet that the market would be higher than this level in 15 to 20 years time. While there is still considerable time for this bet to work out, Buffet has already marked down a $6.7 billion loss on that trade. When investment 'Gods' such as Buffet look ready to fall, it is hardly surprising that investors are running to safe havens.

Just two months ago, the US Federal Reserve was still concerned about the "upside risks to inflation". With last week's 1 % decline in US consumer prices and rapid declines in UK inflation figures, we've gone from fears over inflation and stagflation, all the way to deflation in the space of 90 days. As a sign of the times, oil prices hit a new milestone last week. Just four months after making record highs of $147 a barrel, oil touched a low of $48.25 on Friday, a remarkable drop of 67%. The rapid demise in crude prices is having a direct impact on the Russian economy and stock market. Since May the Russian stock market has been leading other so called BRIC nations lower, with a drop of around 70% since the May highs.

Financial shares led the selling. HSBC received a broker down grade on fears of the state of its tier 1 equity ratio. HSBC was formerly at arm's length to the rest of the banking sector with its relatively low exposure to US subprime loans. However, the 'world's local bank' is now feeling the pressure due to its exposure to emerging economies, especially the troubled BRIC economies. In the US Citigroup was hit hard, losing half its value in just three days. Once the biggest US bank by market value, there is speculation that bad loans and writedowns may add up to losses totalling $20 billion for the troubled Citigroup. Some commentators point to Treasury secretary Paulson's change of tack with regard to long directly buying toxic assets under the TARP program for sparking much of last week's sell off.

Next week starts with the German Ifo business climate report which will analysed closely after recent announcements that many parts of the Eurozone are already in recession. US existing home sales are released at 13.00 on Monday and analysts are expecting further declines to 5.02 million from 5.18 million. Tuesday morning brings a raft of UK economic announcements with the MPC treasury committee hearing top of the list. Preliminary US GDP is announced around midday, with the revised UK figures out the next day. Thursday is an extremely busy day with a large number of US announcements. Core durable goods, unemployment claims and new home sales are the notable highlights. The rest of the trading week could be relatively quiet with many traders using Thursday Thanksgiving holiday to make a long weekend.

There is simply no telling what the market or economy might be like as we start 2009. A selloff of this speed hasn't been seen since the 1930s, and although comparisons have often been made of late, it is worth noting that at the low points of this period, rallies, when they came were surprisingly aggressive. Barry Rithholtz last week noted that the AAII individual investor's stock allocation was 15% below its 21 year historical average. Although not marking the exact bottom, readings of this nature were not a million miles from the lows of 1987, 1990 and 2002. With a hoard of cash waiting in the wings, there is always the possibility of this reading again marketing the bottom. However, this market has left many seasoned professionals scratching their heads as the selloff has been unlike anything seen for generations. In recent months, these markets have reached extremes of sentiment that in the past have market key turning points. The trouble is that of late, markets have continued to make new extremes way beyond previous inflection points.

One market that has been away from the headlines is gold. In the first quarter, it ran up to over $1,000, but has since retreated to just under $800. Gold was seen as a hedge against inflation and was used as a hedge against the weak dollar. With inflation on the wane and the dollar on the attack, gold has been on the retreat. However it hasn't collapsed in the same manner than oil has and this is because gold is seen as a safe haven in times of trouble. These opposing cross winds have kept oil in a volatile trading range between $800 and $700 over the last 30 days. With gold rallying $50 alone on Friday, there is a very real chance of a break out of this range in the next 30 days.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a higher opening, giving traders some optimism after what was a very bad week. Reports state that the FTSE might get hit with some negativity from the nationwide house prices, however it is very likely that we are going to start the week on a positive note. On another note, construction companies are begging the UK government for aid, pointing to the fact that no help will result in layoffs of almost 300,000 people.

Oil treads water above the 50 dollars per barrel level, however this seems to be a short tread. The long term downtrend is poised to continue and oil is poised to find itself trading near the 45 dollar level before December. Today we might be able to get to the 48 dollar per barrel

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is indicating a very weak open, while traders are thankful that this is the last day of the week. Most major indices have taken a beating this week, with the SP500 trading at levels not seen since 1997. Sadly we believe that the sell-off will continue into next week. The FTSE might shed another 15% before this round of sell-offs is over.

Oil continues its downtrend and the big question is not when, rather how many barrels of oil will OPEC cut from its daily output at its next meeting. With plunging demand and the crumbling economy, the price for oil is destined to keep falling. We might see oil close below the 45 dollar mark this week.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Any remaining confidence in global markets has been well and truly trampled on today as investors throw in the towel. After months of bailouts, mini rallies, more bailouts and false dawns, investors have had enough. There has been a panicked flight to quality today as the yield on the shortest term US treasury bonds sink to near zero. Money is flooding to what is perceived to the safest haven in these troubled times. People would rather get next to no interest rather than risk losing their capital.

The cost of insuring against investment grade companies defaulting has shot up to its highest level since the crisis began. Worse still, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway fund has seen the cost of its credit default swaps shoot to 5 times the level they traded at in June. At currently levels, the CDS prices are implying that Berkshire is more likely to go bust than Morgan Stanley. When investment titans such as Buffet look ready to fall, it is no wonder than investors are running to safe havens.

It has already been a remarkable year and at current levels it stands to be one of the worst on record. However, there are small positives to be found if you look hard enough. Today the UK banking sector is performing relatively well as Lloyds shareholders look as though they will approve the HBOS merger and RBS shareholders look set to approve and new fundraising plan. In the last few minutes there has been a wicked bounce off the lows of the day, but this recovery must hold if there is to be any chance of avoiding a revisit of the 2002 lows. Today’s sell off took the S&P 500 futures within just 10 points of this level.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a very weak opening, as the global equity sell off continues. Traders are pinning their hopes on the UK retail sales numbers, while analysts are expecting a year over year growth of 1.4%; the numbers could come out higher. While this could be good news for the retail stores, we don't believe that it will have enough affect to get the FTSE back into the green.

Oil prices continue to crumble with no end in sight, as world wide demand for oil and its by products evaporates. Analysts are now expecting oil to fall another 25%, even after taking into account that OPEC will cut an additional 2.5 million barrels a day before the year end. Oil is currently trading around the 53 dollars per barrel mark and will probably reach the 50 dollars mark by Friday.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Just two months ago, the US Federal Reserve was still concerned about the “upside risks to inflation”. With today’s record 1% decline in US consumer prices, we’ve gone from fears over inflation and stagflation all the way to deflation in the space of 90 days. Traders have shrunk their investment outlook from years to days as they attempt to keep track of the violent changes in the stock market and economic outlook.
Today, most financials stocks are under pressure, led by HSBC who received a broker down grade on fears of the state of its tier 1 equity ratio. HSBC was formerly at arms length to the rest of the banking sector with its relatively low exposure to US subprime loans. However, the world’s local bank is now feeling the pressure due to its exposure to emerging economies, especially the so called BRIC nations. Brazil and India have seen their stock markets drop around 50% from their highs, while the Chinese stock market has nearly dropped a staggering 70%.

In general, hope remains while the benchmark S&P 500 continues to hold above the key 850 level. However, any breakdown below there could bring a fresh wave of selling.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a flat open, as traders stay out of the market until the release of Bank of England's minutes from their last meeting. Traders are hoping that the BOE has left the door open to another rate cut, as the crumbling economy needs even more help from the government. The tone of the day depends on how favorable the minutes are.

After spiking on the news of the hijacked vessel, oil is back to trading below the 55 dollars per barrel mark. Analysts anticipate another week of inventory growing in the US. This could send oil prices tumbling even more, possibly touching the 50 dollars per barrel mark. The inventory data will be released at 10.35am EST.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

US stock markets are pushing higher and holding ground above crucial support levels. The S&P 500 has far managed to find a floor above the 850 handle and the Dow Jones has found some breathing space above 8000. It is hardly grounds for popping the champagne corks, but at least US equities are holding for now. Stock markets seem to like the biggest ever month on month drop in the US producer price index. The drop was 2.8% which exceeds the previous extreme of -1.6%. With inflation also dropping in the UK, markets are hoping that there is now more wriggle room for further rate cuts. What is most amazing about the current crisis is the speed at which things are moving. Just three months ago, the FTSE was 36% higher with the bank of England hesitant to cut rates because of the dangers of rising inflation. Fast forward to the present day and it’s a very different picture. There is simply no telling what the market or economy might be like as we start 2009. A sell off of this speed hasn’t been seen since the 1930s and although this comparison has often been made of late, it is worth noting that at the low points of this period, rallies, when they came were surprisingly aggressive. With a flood of cash waiting in the wings, there is always the possibility of this happening again. Finding the low point might be the problem.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a flat opening as traders stay on the fence until the UK CPI numbers are released. While some analysts believe that the CPI will show a smaller increase then before, after further research we believe that the CPI will come out much hotter then expected. This could put the next interest rate cut in jeopardy. If the CPI numbers come out worse then expected watch for the stocks to tumble especially the financials.

Oil fell almost 3 percent yesterday, as continued concern over the global slowdown continues. Analysts are no longer wondering if we are in a recession, the question now is how long and how painful will this economic contraction be. With the slew of economic news this week, we might see oil finally break the 50 dollars per barrel mark.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

All eyes are on the major US markets to see if they can hold above the recent lows. 850 in particular seems to be a very important level for the S&P500 to hold if it is to stand any chance of rallying from here. In many ways, UK financials are in a similar situation. With the exception of HSBC, all major UK financials including Lloyds, HBOS, RBS and Barclays are revisiting their lows of the year so far. After all the bailouts and improvements in the credit markets, investors are asking themselves one simple question; “Exactly how will this company make money?”. Perhaps, its an obvious question to ask, but it is one that was oft forgotten during the previous bull market as share prices went through the roof. Now with punitive financial loans, curbs on dividend payments and uncertainty over exposure to toxic assets, investors are understandably sceptical of where any future growth might come from. Friday’s wild swings on the Dow Jones have been attributed to hedge funds having to sell assets in order to meet redemption requests. This again may be bad news for banks who extend multi billion pound credit lines to hedge funds, many of whom have now lost well over 20% for the year to date.

[B]BetOnMarkets[/B]

BetOnMarkets - We are in a Recession! What next

Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 17th - 21st November 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week 17th - 21st November 2008

PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT

Monday November 17th:

UK - 00:01 - Rightmove M/M.
EU - 10:00 - Trade Balance.
US - 13:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US - 14:00 - FOMC Member Duke Speaks.
US - 14:15 - Capacity Utilization Rate.
US - 14:15 - Industrial Production M/M.

Tuesday November 18th:

UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
US - 13:30 - PPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - Core PPI M/M.
US - 14:00 - Core PPI M/M.
UK - 15:30 - MPC Member Besley Speaks.
US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
EU - 18:30 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Wednesday November 19th:

UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
US - 13:30 - CPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - Core CPI M/M.
US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
US - 14:00 - FOMC Member Kohn Speaks.
US - 15:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
US - 16:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday November 20th:

GE - 07:00 - PPI M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 15:00 - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US - 15:00 - CB Leading Index M/M.
US - 15:35 - Natural Gas Storage.

Friday November 21st:

FR - 07:45 - Consumer Spending M/M.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 13:00 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.

EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany


The week ahead.

World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE finished the week down around 4%, but it was UK plc that took a battering. The Pound fell to record lows against the European single currency, even breaking through the synthetic Euro/ Deutsche Mark lows from 1996.The weeks action was all the more damning considering the Eurozones admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1.5000 level for the first time since 2002. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1.3685 from 2001 is breached.

Financials were amongst the worst performing companies as Libor broke its 23 day decline. 3 month Libor increased to 2.15% and overnight Libor also pushed higher. The main catalyst was Paulson's announcements of changes to the Troubled Asset Relief Program. As this originally was seen as getting to the heart of the matter in terms of offloading toxic assets, investors are confused as to what this means for future prospects for financial firms in the US. In the US, the insurance giant AIG had its earnings estimates cut, as did Wells Fargo. Much worse are the rumours that Fannie May may have to tap into US government cash to avoid liquidation. Previously unaffected stocks such as HSBC were also down hard after poor results, and there was speculation that it too may need to follow Santander's lead in raising money through a rights issue. Until very recently HSBC and Santander were seen as being at arms length to the current crisis due to their relatively low exposure to the US housing market. However, with news of the UK property crash worsening and Asian markets faltering, HSBC is coming under increasing pressure.

More than anything market participants hate confusion or indecision, with the common reaction being "if in doubt, get out". This is reflected in the performance of financial shares across the globe. Even when the wider market attempted a rally, financials were weighing on sentiment, like a ship trying to sail with its anchor still deployed.

Although last weeks UK unemployment data and sales projections from various companies fell below consensus, European markets didnt revisit the October lows and US markets managed to rally from beneath them . Despite the economic outlook arguably looking bleaker than it did just two weeks ago, markets havent capitulated. The optimistic interpretation of this scenario is that the bad news is starting to be priced in by the stock market. As markets are forward looking by at least 6 months, they could be discounting the slowdown that virtually everyone is predicting, and are looking for what happens after that.

The pessimistic interpretation of the current scenario is that markets are as over optimistic now as they were a couple of months ago. The default reaction to any impending disaster is in most cases denial then panic. The pessimist would argue that investors are still too optimistic about companys future growth prospects, and so further falls are likely. The reality is that markets are flipping from optimism to pessimism almost by the hour and remain entrenched in a choppy mess. After repeated failed rallies over the last few weeks, the bulls would be forgiven for giving up the ghost.
The coming week kicks off with some middle tier US industrial production figures and Treasury secretary speaking late on Monday evening. On Tuesday there is a raft of UK and US inflation numbers followed by Fed chairman Bernanke testifying as US markets open. Wednesday sees the release of the last MPC meeting minutes and with Gordon Brown calling for further rate cuts, these minutes will be poured over closely for hints of future decisions. Later that evening the FOMC release the minutes from their last meeting and although many argue they are done for now, Wall Street is still calling for more cuts.

There have been many comparisons between current market action and the great depression of the 1930s, and in many ways these comparisons are valid. The last time markets were as choppy as they are today was indeed the 1930s. The world is a very different place to how it was 70-80 years ago, but the current extremes were seeing point back to this period as being a strong likeness. According to Rob Hannah of Quantifiable Edges, the stock market only recovered from this decade long malaise, once it switched from chop mode to trending mode. If a long period of chop is the worst we experience over the next few months, even years, although frustrating, there may be worse things that could happen. Ironically, a smooth decline which bottoms out to form a smooth rally may be the real harbinger of a recovery. This may be a moot point as we are still far from seeing smooth rallies or smooth declines.

Potentially more positive signs were pointed out by Jason Goepfert of SentimentTrader, who noted that until this week the S&P 500 has never swung up 5% one day then 4% down the next. This has happened three times on the Dow Jones, all dates between 1929 and 1932. None of them marked a low, but were within a week or so of one. Barry Rithholtz also noted that market bottoms are rarely completed without multiple retests of prior lows. This is arguably what we were seeing last week. While there is considerable risk of further selling, at least with fixed odds trading our risk is limited to our stake. Therefore a Bull bet, which predicts that the market will be higher than a certain level in the future could offer an attractive risk reward. A bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be higher than 9000 in 9 days time could return 187.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a slightly weaker opening, as Rightmove House prices are worse then expected and again are reminding traders about the weak real estate market. Most investors are awaiting the release of the UK CPI numbers on Tuesday, worrying that the interest rate cut has unleashed a wave of inflation. The FTSE has a good chance to start the week off on a positive note.

Oil is sliding from the 58 dollars per barrel mark, as news that Chinas largest crude oil producer announced that demand has fallen sharply. Oil traders are worried that the lower demand will push prices below 50 dollars a barrel. We should know if they are right within the next few weeks.


Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4188 (-44.97)
CAC40 3239.30 (-46)
DAX30 4650 (-67)
DOW: 8396 (-79)
SP500 8864.03 (+2.50)
Gold: 742.10 (-11.20)
Oil: 55.92 (-1.08)

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very strong opening, as traders look for value amongst the rubble of the recent sell off. While there is no economic data from UK this morning, analysts will be paying close attention to the US retail sales for indication if consumers are still spending money. Retail stocks are going to be the most sensitive today, as they are entering the most important two months of the year.

Oil continues to be the victim of the sinking economy, as retail and manufacturing indicators show that the economy has gone into a full fledged recession. Yesterdays 3 dollar per barrel bounce seems to be just an oversold bounce and it seems like it will be short lived. We expect oil to end the week below the 60 dollars per barrel level.


Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4328 (+158.79)
CAC40 3400 (+136.00)
DAX30 4851 (+198.2)
DOW: 8757 (-120)
SP500 898.78 (-10.50)
Gold: 725.85 (+0.70)
Oil: 57.89 (-0.32)

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Having traded within a whisker of their October lows, US markets are
helping to push markets over the break even mark for the day. The
notable exception is the FTSE which is being dragged down by continuing
weakness in the financial and energy sector. Crude has made a minor
recovery today, but this comes after 22 month low was made yesterday in
late US trading. Consequently, BP and Shell are still down heavily on
day as a hangover from overnight sentiment. Financials are amongst the
worst performing companies today as Libor broke its 23 day decline. 3
month Libor increased to 2.15% and overnight Libor also pushed higher.
The main catalyst has been Paulson's announcements of changes to the
Troubled Asset Relief Program. As this originally was seen as getting to
the heart of the matter in terms of offloading toxic assets, investors
are confused as to what this means for the future prospects for
financial firms in the US. More than anything market participants hate
confusion or indecision, with the common reaction being "if in doubt,
get out". This is reflected in the performance of financial shares
across the globe today. As the wider market attempts a rally, financials
are weighing on sentiment like a ship trying to sail with its anchor
still deployed.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very weak opening, as traders worry that the UK economy has simply fallen of a cliff. Due to recent news that the UK chancellor is hoping that the recession will be over by 2010, has sent the British Pound to its lowest level since 2002. With the unemployment rate continuing to creep up, the BOE has announced that they are ready to cut interest rates again to help prop up the sluggish economy. The FTSE will most likely spend all of Thursday in the red.

Oil is trading at a 21 month low, as fear of a prolonged slowdown is putting downward pressure on oil prices. Traders are waiting for the release of the inventory report, which was delayed due to Veterans day being a holiday. Oil is currently trading at 55 dollars per barrel and is likely to hit the 50 dollar mark by the end of the month.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4089 (-93.02)
CAC40 3169.60 (-61.70)
DAX30 4557.5 (-58.5)
DOW: 8220 (-66)
SP500 845.25 (-9.25)
Gold: 714.55 (-2.10)
Oil: 55.30 (-0.63)

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

With markets selling off again in the face of dire economic data, it is
worth stepping back and putting things in perspective. Although today's
UK unemployment data was dire and sales projections from Best Buy below
consensus, markets haven't capitulated. Despite the economic outlook
arguably looking bleaker than it did just two weeks ago, markets are
holding above the October lows. The optimistic interpretation of this
scenario is that the bad news is starting to be priced in by the stock
market. As markets are forward looking by at least 6 months, markets
could be discounting the slowdown that virtually everyone is predicting
and are looking for what happens after that.

The pessimistic interpretation of the current scenario is that markets
are as over optimistic now as they were a couple of months ago. The
default reaction to any impending disaster is in most cases denial then
panic. The pessimist would argue that investors are still too optimistic
about companies future growth prospects and so further falls are likely.

The reality is that markets are flipping from optimism to pessimism
almost by the hour and markets remain entrenched in a choppy mess. After
repeated failed rallies over the last few weeks, the bulls would be
forgiven for giving up the ghost.

There have been many comparisons between current market action and the
great depression of the 1930s and in many ways these comparisons are
valid. The last time markets were as choppy as they are today was indeed
the 1930s. The world is a very different place to how it was 70-80 years
ago, but the current extremes were seeing point back to this period as
being a strong likeness. It is interesting to note that the stock market
only recovered from is decade long malaise once it switched from chop
mode to trending mode. If a long period of chop is the worst we
experience over the next few months, even years, although frustrating,
there may be worse things that could happen. Ironically, a smooth
decline which bottoms out to form a smooth rally may be the real
harbinger of a recovery.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders await the release of the UK employment data for October. While analysts are expecting the unemployment rate to increase, the rate is slowing down so this could be a good sign. The FTSE should stay in the positive unless the employment data comes out worse then expected.

Speculations that the International Energy Agency will cut its demand forecast has plunged oil to a 20-month low. We might see another down day on Wednesday, as there is a possibility that supply inventory has risen for another week. We could actually see oil touch the 55 dollar mark by the end of the day.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4319 (+72.13)
CAC40 3386.60 (+51.80)
DAX30 4843.5 (+89)
DOW: 8722 (+44)
SP500 902.90 (+8.37)
Gold: 736.45 (+1.35)
Oil: 59.28 (-0.08)

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Yesterday it took stock markets just half a day to figure out that the
Chinese economic stimulus package isn't anywhere near as good as first
hoped. Once traders got down to the small print of the planned economic
injection, there was the general feeling that much of the announcement
was simply a repackaging of existing commitments. This quickly deflated
the mornings euphoria and the selling has rolled over to today's session
with a wave of dire headlines on the economic front. Energy stocks have
been particularly hit hard today as yesterday's rally in crude prices
reversed hard alongside general sentiment about the Chinese stimulus
package. With crude trading at just under $60 a barrel, oil has now
reversed 60% since its peak in June 2008. Oil producing countries such
as Russia have been hit harder than most with the ruble slumping 1%
against other currencies and the stock market plunge in the stock market.

Financials across the world are under pressure once more. In the US, the
insurance giant AIG had its earnings estimates cut as did Wells Fargo.
Much worse are the rumours that Fannie may have to tap into US
government cash to avoid liquidation. Financials in the UK are fairing
little better with HSBC down hard after yesterdays poor results and
speculation that it too may need to follow Santander's lead in raising
money through a rights issue. Until very recently HSBC and Santander
were seen as being at arms length to the current crisis due to their
relatively low exposure to the US housing market. However, with news of
the UK property crash worsening and Asian markets faltering, HSBC is
coming under increasing pressure.

To top it all, the real economy is showing further cracks with economic
bellwether, Starbucks posting poor earnings figures. When things are
tight, it seems that expensive coffee is a luxury consumers can do without.

Although the dire news flow is starting to get priced in to current
index levels, there is the feeling that investors, like home buyers are
taking a 'wait and see approach'. Just as in the housing market, there
may be some bargains around, but no-one is willing to stick their neck
out in case there are even better bargains tomorrow. That is classic
bear market behaviour, which will only right itself once a rally holds
and momentum investors step in on the belief that someone else will buy
at a higher price than they have. This is otherwise known as the greater
fool principle and right now it appears, no-one is willing to take the
risk that the joke is on them.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a weak opening after the midnight release of
the RICS house prices. U.K. home sales declined its lowest level in at
least three decades, as the lending freeze pushed down prices for a 15th
month in a row. Although the rate cuts were better then ever, it has not
helped as some banks are not passing on the cut to the customers. The FTSE
should open Tuesday in the red.

Oil yet again finds itself flirting with the 60 dollar mark, as evidence
continues to mount that the major oil consumers are entering what might be a
prolonged recession. Even the stimulus package that was announced in China
had only minimal impact on the price. There is a very strong possibility
that the price of oil could touch the 50 dollars per barrel mark by the end
of the month.



Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4383.3 (-20.62)
CAC40 3460.60 (-41.20)
DAX30 4966.5 (-58)
DOW: 8949 (+73)
SP500 927.03 (+4.50)
Gold: 748.60 (+0.25)
Oil: 60.89 (-1.25)

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Global stock markets certainly got out of the right side of bet this
morning and unlike the volatile days of October have so far managed to
hold on to those gains. The catalyst for today's optimism is the same
catalyst as the pre credit crunch market boom; China. The Chinese
stimulus package has lifted global stock markets with commodities such
as oil and metals the primary gainers. China needed record levels of raw
materials to fuel it's powerful growth spurt over the last 5 years and
fears of a slow down in china specifically have been a significant
reason for the reason falls in commodities since their peak last year.
Energy and natural resource stocks are understandably the biggest
gainers today as traders speculate that a floor might finally have been
found in the oil bear market. Who would have thought that 'oil' and
'bear market' would have been uttered in the same sentence at the start
of the year.

Elsewhere, financial stocks are mixed despite 3 month libor falling to
its lowest level since 2004. Confidence in the credit markets is
increasing as the various central bank interventions continue to grease
the wheels of the rusted apparatus. However, financial stocks are still
underperforming today overall. News that AIG's bail out package is now
70% higher at $125 billion has hurt sentiment in other financial
companies. Investors are still holding onto their cash on the fear that
another round of bailouts or fresh cash calls are just around the
corner. Most financial firms are safer than at any time during the last
year with the various government guarantees, but further bailouts or
special loans could further dilute share holder returns.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Today's US payroll figures were ugly by any measure, with the reported
loss of 240,000 jobs slightly worse than expected. The worse data point
to come out today was actually the downwards revision to Septembers
payroll figures. Today's revision pushed September payrolls down from
-159,000 to -284,000. This means that so far in 2008, around 1 million
jobs have been lost, most of these have been in the financial sector but
the slump is prevalent in virtually every US sector.

On the face of it, it is perhaps surprising to see equity markets
rebound so strongly especially in the face of accelerating unemployment
in the world's biggest economy. However, the reality is that financial
markets are forward looking which means that most of the time the bad
news is already taken into account. Today's payroll figures could have
been even worse than they were and judging by the rebound we're seeing,
a significant part of the falls on Wednesday and Thursday may have been
traders rushing in to sell ahead of today's numbers. The net result is
that the two day sell off appears to have overshot slightly.

On the credit markets, libor and credit default swaps continue to
improve for the worlds largest financial firms. The cost of insuring
against companies defaulting on their debt is still very high by
historical standards, but they have still come down a long way in the
last few weeks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs still remain a concern
while the UK's HSBC currently has the lowest CDS of the remaining major
independent banks and brokers. In short, things have most certainly
improved since the dark days of October, but there is a long way to go
before we can say safely say that this credit crisis is over.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Update

Today, the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5%
rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost
the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period.
Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an
impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to
filter down to consumers. The MPC have sent out a message that they are
prepared to treat the threat posed by the global slowdown very
seriously. Unfortunately this message is a double edged sword, the
euphoria that immediately met the rate cut was short lived and the FTSE
soon rolled over and headed back towards the lows of the day. Market
participants may be taking the view that for the MPC to slash rates in
such a dramatic manner, things must be /really/ bad.

There is also the possibility that today's rate cut might make it less
likely that the MPC will cut again in the near future. Experts had been
calling for cuts of this magnitude over a number of months, but the MPC
may have bundled all their planned rate cuts in one dramatic roll of the
dice. It may be some time before they cut again, preferring to let the
dust settle on the biggest single cut in a generation.

Although on the face of it, financial stocks are still down hard on the
day, today's rate cut has at least helped the sector to perform
relatively strongly today compared to other sectors. Most UK financials
are above the levels they were trading at before the rate cut was
announced.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very weak opening, as traders await the announcement from The Bank of England regarding a rate cut. Traders worry that the BOE might not cut aggressively enough to help the economy out of this slowdown. However an over aggressive cut would unleash hyperinflation, which will hurt the consumers as their buying power will evaporate. If we get a 50 basis point cut, it is possible for the FTSE to open the day in positive territory.

A surprising increase in the inventory of gasoline was the cause for the 5 dollar per barrel drop in yesterdays trading. While the demand continues to fall, we expect a few more weeks of growing inventory before the OPEC cuts finally affect the price per barrel. We still expect oil to continue to fall towards the 60 dollar per barrel level.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Global markets opened the day around and two percent have made little headway throughout the day. Some have attributed today’s sell off to the market’s dislike to a having a democrat president, but there is little evidence to suggest this. Statistics show that markets have no significant reaction to either party winning the presidency one month on from election today. Today’s sell off is more a function of the stellar run global equities have been on since the end of last month. The FTSE has managed to finish higher for eight days on the trot, which is a very rare event indeed so it is understandable that traders are taking the opportunity to book profits.

UK banks are for once out performing the wider markets as credit conditions continue to improve and speculation mounts that the Bank of England might be considering a whole percentage point cut tomorrow. Last week, a 0.5% cut was the clear favourite course of action, but as the week progresses there is increasing chatter that the MPC will go the whole hog.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, as a worse then expected consumer confidence report has thrown ice water on the recent rally. The survey shows that consumers are spooked and are delaying major purchases. This is not good news for retail stocks, which are expected to open weaker this morning. There is a chance that the FTSE will incur a case of profit taking today to close out the week

The boost that oil received on Tuesday after the interest rate was cut, was short lived as crude oil finds itself trading below 65 dollars per barrel again. The end of the month will mark the biggest single month drop since trading started in 1983. We expect a quiet day to end out the week.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Today’s US GDP figures hit the headlines, showing that the US economy shrank by 0.3%, the most since 2001. The figure was actually not as drastic as initially expected and as a result, markets have managed to hold on to the morning’s gains. Aside from the market’s reaction to US GSD figures, expectations of a rate cut from the bank of Japan tomorrow has sent Asian markets soaring over the last three days and the rest of the world has been rallying hard with them. The Nikkei is currently up a staggering 26% since Tuesday alone, thought it will have to do the same again and more to recoup the 33% losses since the start of the 3rd quarter.

In the UK, the energy sector is being pulled in different directions. The previously soaring energy prices helped Royal Dutch Shell to report a better than expected 71% jump in 3Q profits, yet their share price is down around 4% on the day. Investors are less interested in the profits shell has just made, and are more concerned about the prospect of future growth. Judging by today’s share price reaction, investors see much lower profits in the future now oil has turned the corner. On the other hand smaller UK oil services companies such as Petrofac and Amec are performing well today. There is speculation that these support companies might be better able to ride out lower oil prices with their lower cost base and reduced direct exposure to oil prices.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Today’s rally has helped ensure that October 2008 is spared the embarrassment of being one of the worst months on record, but we are far from being out of the woods yet. Since September there have been two rallies of today’s magnitude on the FTSE and in each case, the gains were wiped out in just over week. October 13ths big rally promised much but the day’s gains were reversed within just three days. Although October could mark an intermediate term low point, it is highly unlikely that it will be plain sailing from here. What is more likely over the next 3-6 months is continued volatility with many more days rising or falling by 5%. If (big if) we can get some follow on buying from here over the next week or so, we could continue to back and fill higher over the next few months.

Before this can happen, markets face a very harsh test with the US interest rate decision this evening. Currently a cut down to 1% is the most likely scenario, though some are calling for a cut down to 0.75%. Although this may happen eventually, we believe that a cut greater than 0.5% this month is less likely than people think. The continued improvements in the credit markets are a factor, the Fed may fear using up all their bullets too soon as Japan did after their economic boom turned to bust in the 80s and 90s. When rates reach 0% there is nowhere else to go.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very strong opening, as the global rally continues. The buying which started late in US trading and resulted in the SP500 to close up almost 11 percent, is poised to continue this morning in London. Although its too early to celebrate, traders are seeing signs that the credit market, which earlier this year paralyzed the stock markets, is easing up. While we are not certain if this was the bottom of the barrel, what we are certain of is that volatility will continue.

Commodity traders will be waiting until the inventory report by the US energy department is released before deciding the next short term direction for oil. While there are worries that a global slow down will cause the demand to fall faster, the OPEC cuts supplies for the near term oil should be helped by the cold weather that has hit the US this week. Look for oil to stay above 63 dollars until the inventory report is in.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Today the buyers stepped out of the shadows, but yet again the sellers stepped in to push markets off their highs off the day. The FTSE and other world indices are still in positive territory for the day, but a wave of poor economic data has kept a lid on any sustained buying. US house prices are down 16.6% year on year, having slumped over 30% since their peak in 2004. In the face of a continual erosion of the value of their homes and the ever present warnings about the biggest slow down since the great depression, it is little wonder that US consumer confidence figures came out at record levels. Today’s reading of 38.0 is the lowest in the indicator’s history going back to 1967.

Markets are still extremely jittery as evidence by today’s wild ride on Volkswagen which temporarily became the world’s largest company by market capitalisation, overtaking ExxonMobil for a short while as it rose above 1,000 Euros this morning. Just two days ago, it was trading at 200 Euros. Porche increased their stake in the company to 75%, but the real reason for the huge spike was the squeeze on short traders. Volkswagen has the highest short interest of any stock on the German DAX index. Although shareholders in Volkswagen are rather happy right now, today’s spike is more a symptom of the lack of liquidity in today’s market place. The German DAX is the best performing index today, largely on the back of the Volkswagen move.

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BetOnMarkets

In the afternoon traders will be paying attention to the US consumer confidence report, which could have the possibility to lift the world wide equity markets out of the recent funk.

Oil has hit a 17 month low, on speculations that the global financial crisis may slash fuel demand. Oil is down more then 56% since its July 11th peak and it seems that prices are heading lower after OPEC cut oil demand projections for 2009. It seems that the traders that used oil as a hedge against the US economy are now feeling the pain having overlooked the fact that with the world being interconnected, a slowdown in US means a slowdown everywhere else.

BetOnMarkets

Worst year on record for global stock markets

With Friday's falls, 2008 is shaping up to be the worst year on record for global stock markets. Last week the FTSE 100 fell 5%, the DAX 4.96% and the CAC 3.54. In the US, the Dow was off 5.35% on the week and the S&P 500 down 6.78%. From its peak on the 9th of October 2007, the S&P 500 has now declined a massive 44%% from its peak on October 9th 2007. There is still some way to go to match with 1931's -62% decline from a peak without a 20% reversal. That said, the current bear market is currently in the top 5 collapses from a peak without a 20% reversal. Bank of England governor Mervyn King grabbed the headlines last week by daring to mention the R word. Friday's dire UK GDP figures were the final nail in the coffin, sparking the flood of selling witnessed at the end of last week. Markets have been pricing in the likelihood of a UK recession for some time, but King's comments and the GDP figures hit home because they imply a deeper and uglier recession than previously feared.
The Dollar reigned supreme last week as the Pound and Euro fell heavily. Although the US economy is also in dire straits, their interest rates have less distance to fall at 1.5% currently. By contrast the UK has a relatively high interest rate at 4.5%, and with a deteriating economic climate, these rates are set to tumble. Interest rates in the Eurozone are currently 3.75% with expectations for further cuts. As expectations for lower interest rates are negative for currencies, last week's dramatic falls imply deep cuts to come from the Bank of England. The last time the Pound fell so much against the Dollar was when the Pound was ejected from the ERM. The recent collapse is eerily similar to the 1992 plunge. Then as now, the pound fell from above $2 to the pound to less than $1.60 in less than three months. The eventual low of that run was 1.4068 in January 1992. If that run is anything to go by, the current run on the pound could have further to go.
Alistair Darling's plan to borrow his way out of trouble, and Sarkozy's left leaning call to support the Eurozone's troubled industries as the US did with their auto manufacturers have put considerable pressure on the Pound and Euro. Barclay's announcement that it is planning the first government guaranteed bond sale has also added to the list of potential liabilities facing UK plc. The prospects of growth for the financial sector also hit sentiment last week. Large US companies disappointed with their earnings announcements, and investors priced in the worst quarterly cut in dividends since 1944. The majority of these cuts are in the financial sector.

This weeks economic announcements are dominated by the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday. Federal fund futures are currently implying a 45% chance of a cut down to 1%. This seems the most likely outcome for this weeks meeting though a cut down to 0.75% cannot be ruled out and the futures market is currently implying a 30% chance of this happening.

One positive from last week, was that the credit markets are showing increasing signs of improvement with overnight Libor looking more like overnight Libor. Even three month Libor has continued to improve. The coordinated moves from central governments seem to have hit their mark, although it all came too late for the wider economy. Financial markets are already starting to discount a deep recession. Oil prices coming off the boil will help embattled consumers, but oil stocks contributed significantly to the FTSE's positive performance in the last three years, not to mention the extra tax revenue for the treasury.
With UK banks forced to cut their dividend growth, and warnings from some commentators such as Tassim Taleb, that banks will now become more like utilities than engines of financial speculation, growth in the financial sector may never again reach the heights achieved in the last two decades. With the FTSE's two major sectors in reverse, the prospects of a meaningful recovery for the FTSE look remote. A One Touch trade predicting that the FTSE 100 will touch 3100 at any time during the next 6 months could return 50% at BetOnMarkets.

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, following the theme started in Asia. Traders are going through the recent report from Gordon Brown, in which the Prime Minister announced that he will increase Britains spending in order to cushion the countries first recession since 1992. While this is good news for equities, the FTSE is going to open in the red due to the sell off which started in Australia this morning.

Crude oil is trading at a 16 month low amid expectations that OPECs decision to cut production was not enough to get prices back to the summer levels. Gold traders have been frustrated lately, as gold prices have dropped by more then 150 dollars per ounce, as a result of a strengthening US dollar. There is a strong indication that oil might touch 60 dollars per barrel before putting a halt to the recent slide.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are hedging their bets ahead of the release of the UK GDP numbers. Rumors are flying that the GDP will come out negative, putting more pressure on the UK government to help out the economy. This week we already saw that the British government is running the biggest deficit since World War 2, making it harder for Gordon Brown to spend his way out of a recession like the US government is trying to do. It is likely that the FTSE will spend the day in negative territory.

All eyes will be on the OPEC announcement, as it is obvious that a production cut is coming. The million dollar question will be, how much? Analysts are looking for a cut of more than 2 million barrels, some are even predicting for 3 million. All of this will assure one thing, for a very volatile trading day! If OPEC cuts less than the expected 2 million barrels, we might see prices dip below 60 dollars per barrel.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a weaker opening this morning, as the sell off which started in US last night continues. Traders find themselves caught in a struggle, with both sides afraid of taking charge. The Bears are worried that another intervention will cause a short squeeze, while the Bulls are concerned that stocks have a lot more room to fall. It is possible that the FTSE might get a boost before the opening, as traders await the release of the UK retail sales numbers.

Oil currently finds itself trading at a 16 month low, after the US inventory report showed that the demand for oil is down by almost 10 percent for the year. Analysts are now estimating that OPEC would need to cut its output by more then 1 million barrels per day in order to reverse the recent losses. We believe that oil might actually touch 60 dollars per barrel before the end of the month.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the UK Rightmove House Prices. A weak number might send the FTSE into the red. Money managers around the world are hoping that the volatility, which plagued the stock markets last week, has come to an end. Currently futures indicate a flat opening to all European equity markets and the FTSE.

Oil rose for a second day, on speculation OPEC will cut output in an attempt to halt a slide in prices, which have fallen more than 50 percent from July's record. The OPEC meeting will be held on the 24th of October. With a possible floor in place for oil prices, we might see a test of the 80 dollars per barrel level as we get closer to the meeting.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a higher opening, as traders, after some initial skepticism, are finally buying into the bailout plan. Although there is no UK economic data today, traders will be looking at the US housing and consumer confidence data. A worse then expected consumer confidence number can send both the US equities and the FTSE into the red.

The threat of an OPEC cut at its meeting next week has lifted oil from a 13 month low. Oil which is currently trading around the 73 dollars per barrel mark, has been in a tailspin as worries of a full fledge recession intensifies. We believe that oil prices have hit their lowest and could only go higher from here.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

After an opening plunge that saw the FTSE hit it’s lowest level for five years, UK shares have at least managed to rebound to trade above the lows of last week. The catalyst yet again is the deep malaise in the banking sector. The markets started with the shock announcement that UBS and Credit Suisse were in need of urgent funds. It hardly got better as the day progressed with US financial firms releasing some ugly earnings figures. Merrill Lynch reported its fifth straight quarterly loss and Citigroup reported a $2.8 billion loss. UK financials are mixed at best as it is reported that Lloyds TSB is lobbying to be able to pay its shareholders dividends. With much of the sentiment and credit worthiness of a financial shares tied to their share price, it is little wonder that UK banks are keen to be able to maintain a dividend payment of sorts. UK banks have hardly moved upwards since the announced bail out plan, not least because the plan cut off the income element that had attracted many to invest in the banks over the last few year. A dividend income provided some comfort to shareholders hit by falling share prices, now this is gone, UK banks appear even less attractive than they did before the bailout even though they are technically safer entities.

There is also the fact that not a penny of the billions promised by the UK and US government has actually landed in the bank’s accounts yet. At a time when cash is king, the banks are still lacking, albeit temporarily.

Many are drawing parallels with the great depression era around 1930. It is interesting to note that the last time the Dow Jones dropped by 7.5% or more three times in a single month was 1929. Then, as now there were big falls followed by snap rallies, followed by further selling. Anyone thinking that this couldn’t get any worse might want to take a look at the performance of the Dow after it recovered off the 1929 November lows. After rallying to 300 over then next 6 months, the Dow subsequently rolled over and dropped a massive 84% to 50. While this may not happen this time, it is worth considering that a fall of this magnitude has happened before.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

Consumer confidence regarding the health of the economy is about to be rattled again, as the FTSE is indicating a very weak opening. The slump that started in US, where the SP500 suffered its worst one day loss since 1987 has continued the sell off into Asia and will move into Europe and UK as the FTSE is indicating an open down more then 4 percent.

Oil seemed to strengthen in the morning before the weakness in the equities market sent oil prices down by more then 6 dollars per barrel. Due to a holiday on Monday, the US oil inventory numbers will be released this afternoon, which should provide some fundamental direction to the black gold, which lately has been caught in a cross fire between equity weakness and US dollar strength. We do not expect for the price of oil to dip below 70 dollars a barrel.

BetOnMarkets

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, brining the 2 day rally to an end. While some investors might attribute the lower opening to profit taking, others are worried that the sagging corporate profits will overshadow the bailout. Currently the FTSE is indicating an opening down by 2 percent.

Oil has tracked movements in equity markets this month, as the credit crisis deepened. Oil traders will have a full plate tomorrow as they await the release of the inventory supplies data. There is a strong possibility that oil will touch the 75 dollar per barrel level before stabilizing.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very strong open as traders disseminate the events of the weekend. Following the trend started in Britain, EU will pump billions of dollars to stabilize the EU banks in exchange for shares in the companies. The futures are indicating that traders are excited about this turn of events. The European equity markets are indicating opening the trading week up more then 5%.

Oil prices rose from their 13 months lows, on the news of the European bailout. Many analysts speculate that the action by European leaders to prevent the regions major lenders from collapsing, may help slow credit market turmoil that threatens to stall the global economy. Currently oil is trading at around the 80 dollar mark, however there is a strong chance that the price per barrel will end up in the low 70s before stabilizing.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a very weak opening and is poised to have the worse week since 1987. The London index was closed when the major sell off started in U.S., forcing the Dow Jones to its lowest close in more then 5 years. However the sell off continued in Asia, with all markets suffering equal losses. Currently futures are indicating for a 8% loss, we might see the FTSE touch double digit losses unless there is government intervention, which is very possible.

Oil fell for a third day as demand dropped and global stock markets plunged on concern that the global credit crisis will push countries including the U.S. into a recession. Gold which has been historically the investment of choice during uncertain times, has climbed past the 900 dollar per ounce mark and it seems like it will touch the 1000 dollar mark before the end of the month.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE currently indicates a slightly higher opening, after the Bank of England, the EBC and FOMC all cut their lending interest rates yesterday. Rumors are circulating that because the BOEs next meeting is not scheduled until November, there might be another rate cut soon.
There is a strong chance that the FTSE will end up in the red at some point during todays trading day.

Oil fell for a second day as the global economic crisis curbed demand also hurting the price of oil was the U.S. government report of a bigger-than-expected gain in crude and gasoline inventories. With the strengthening of the US dollar, there is a good chance that oil prices will test the 85 dollars per barrel mark before the end of the week.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Although the sub prime mess originated in the US, this has always been a global credit crunch. European banks were some of the biggest buyers of sub prime securities so when the crisis developed, any one of the world’s major banks could have been holding toxic assets. This in turn led us to the historical coordinated action by the world’s central banks today. Each government has attempted to deal with the crisis with specific interventions in their area but only a coordinated act like the rate cuts we have seen to day could truly hope to have any real impact.

Markets still do not know what to make of today’s dramatic intervention. UK banks such as Lloyds and Barclays are off their lows of the day, but traders are not exactly piling in like no tomorrow. This might possibly be a function of fears about the UK ‘part nationalisation’ bail out severely crimping any hope of significant shareholder return over the coming years. With an electorate footing the bill and politicians possibly having a say in the running of affairs, juicy dividends for shareholders may be a thing of the past. European markets are still down around 2-3% on the day and the Dow is swinging 50 points in the blink of an eye. Around the quiet period and intermediate high of August, the FTSE had a daily range of around 60 points. Today it is moving that much every 15 minutes. These are extraordinary times and many technical indicators are flashing at levels never seen before. At best central governments are hoping that the coordinated rate bomb has stopped Armageddon, there is now no hope of the UK, US, Irish and Spanish economies avoiding recession. The worse case doesn’t bare thinking about. If today’s coordinated intervention doesn’t at least start breath life into the frozen money markets, one has to wonder what surprise moves the global governments can take next.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders look through yesterdays wreckage for possible investment opportunities. The equities market might get another boost before the opening, as analysts expect that the UK industrial production numbers will come out better then expected. We are looking for a big pop at the open.

Commodities have been taken and beaten up, yet again, as traders keep buying the US dollar. Oil found itself trading below the 90 dollar per barrel level yesterday and it seems like the trend will continue lower until OPEC cuts output. The only winner yesterday was gold, which finds itself the investment of choice, while the equity markets flirts with disaster.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are awaiting the release of the nationwide house prices. Also helping the equity markets is the possible rate cut by the ECB today at 11.45 am GMT. An interest rate cut historically helps the equity markets and today should not be any different. The FTSE should spend most of the day in positive territory.

Commodities benefited from the passage of the rescue bill, with oil stabilizing around the 100 dollars per barrel mark. Oil prices are more volatile today than at any other time since the Gulf War in 1991. The last seven days were a perfect example of that as Oil futures plunged 9.8 percent on Sept. 29, the biggest drop in seven years, after Congress voted to reject the bank rescue plan. A week earlier a record 16 percent jump led regulators to say they were on the lookout for price manipulation. We expect for prices to stabilize before the employment report on Friday.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as rumors intensify that another bailout bill will be introduced in congress today. The rumor was the main reason for the huge recoveries that were enjoyed by equity markets around the world. This recovery was anticipated, as historically meltdowns on Wall Street often attracted bargain hunters. Not all the news yesterday was positive, as the credit market has shown no sign of relief despite the possible bailout rumors being circulated. A key rate that banks charge to lend to one another shot higher, a tightening of the availability of credit that could cascade through the economy. We expect the FTSE to spend most of the morning in positive territory.

Oil traders spent the last few days at the mercy of the rumors, however today it regained most of the 10 dollars per barrel it shed on Monday as rumors of the bailout bill being reintroduced broke out yesterday. Oil has spent the last few weeks in the range between 90 and 110 dollars per barrel and there is little to show that the trend will change anytime soon.

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BetOnMarkets - Unprecedented Stock Market Volatility, Unpredictable Future

Apart from Monday’s opening salvo, it was quieter week for global equities. After Monday’s dramatic reversal, daily movements between high and low, were mostly restricted to sub 2% range days. Between Monday the 15th and Monday the 22nd of September, the level of volatility was unprecedented. The US S&P moved 3.5% between the high and low of the day, something not seen since 1982, according to Jason Goepfert’s Sentimentrader.

With US financial stocks falling nearly 12% on Monday despite the short selling ban, it is clear that last the week before last’s euphoria was mostly a bailout rally, not a simply a short squeeze as many would like to believe. Much of last week’s movements were dependent on the relative progress of the US Government bailout package. A large part of the ‘freaky’ Friday’s optimism subsided, as investors sat back and examined the proposals and the impact of last week’s frenzy with a clearer head. As expected, Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush are not having an easy ride in their bid for congress to approve the $700 billion bailout plan. Despite Bush’s dramatic claims of an impending financial collapse if the bill isn’t ratified, politicians will not find it an easy sell it to their voters, especially in an election year with 55% of the US public opposed to the plan. It is not hard to see why, with extraordinary clauses such as a request for no judicial or administrative reviews of the spending in this bailout. In the end the key issue may not be whether the US government can afford it, but whether it can afford not to do it.

It wasn’t all bad news for financials, with traders buoyed by the news of Warren Buffet’s investment in Goldman Sachs. However, traders were cautious as to what this deal signified. Some believe it to be a vote of confidence in Goldman’s by Buffet, while other see it as a Buffet picking up a great return at bargain basement prices. In the UK financial stocks underperformed as Libor spiked to the highest levels since January. Despite the dramatic interventions over the past two weeks, traders have remained firmly sceptical about general exposure to toxic subprime debt.

Many are expecting a ‘bailout rally’ when the Bush/ Paulson plan is finally passed similar to day when the idea was first mooted. While this may happen, the effect may be short lived. Once the subprime problem has been largely addressed, there is still the issue of banks being underfunded, and the even greater problem of a weakening global economy. The latter in particular seems to have been playing second fiddle to the problems specific to the credit markets.

More US regional banks are in trouble despite the planned bailout package. Regions Financial (Alabama’s biggest bank) and Marshall & Ilsley Corp (Wisconsin’s largest bank) all were well down on the week. Although at present not on the cards, a collapse of small US or international bank wouldn’t spark the collapse of the financial system as we know it, but it does lead to two gloomy thoughts. Firstly, the blanket ban on short selling financial stocks is not a panacea. In fact the last time short selling was banned in 1932, the Dow Jones made a small rally then rolled over by over 40%. Secondly, despite the bailouts and liquidity injections, we may not have seen the last financial institution across the world to fail. While it may not be another major firm, the result is still not going to be positive for market sentiment.

Next week’s flow of economic news is dominated by Wednesday’s ADP Non Farm employment change and Fridays Non Farm payroll figures. Other top tier announcements include Wednesday’s US ISM manufacturing PMI and UK Manufacturing PMI. Thursday brings UK Nationwide house price figures while the ECB press conference on Thursday could also move markets.

It is hard to predict what could happen next with so much dependent on the progress of the bail out package through parliament. If or when it is passed the resulting spurt could be short lived, perhaps leading to a more sustained bear market as the economy takes centre stage again. A Double Touch trade predicting the Dow Jones will touch 11500 and 10799 (in either order) at any time during the next 20 days could return 159% at betonmarkets.com.

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The bloodbath that started yesterday in the United States is set to continue, as the FTSE futures indicate an opening down 5% from yesterdays closing. The SP500 suffered the worst one day loss since October 26th 1987, wiping out almost 800 billion dollars in market cap. While no stock was spared from the sell off as the Advance/Decline ratio on the NASDAQ was at -80. The financials led the way with most companies recording losses in the double digits. The sell off has continued in Asia with the major indices currently down more then 5%. Unless there is a miracle we expect for the FTSE to spend the whole day in the red.

As traders were selling their equity holdings, gold was a huge winner, climbing above the 900 dollars per ounce level. Historically whenever traders felt uncertain in the equities market they would invest in precious metals. We can see that trend to continue as uncertainty and chaos should rule the day. The possibility of a different version of a bailout is not dead and it could possibly slow down the sale off today.

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BetOnMarkets - Bradford and Bingley

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are signaling their approval over the nationalization of Bradford and Bingley. Over the weekend the government and the biggest landlord tried to arrange a sale, however when no bidder came up, the government was forced to step in to protect the deposit holders. This should give the FTSE the boost it needs to start the week of on the positive foot.

Commodities are in for a volatile day, as details of the bailout package get finalized in congress and are due to be passed at any moment. Since the bill will have a negative effect on the US dollar, oil and gold will be the biggest beneficiaries from the bailout.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders prepare themselves for the unveiling of the bailout package. There is still way to many questions left unanswered in the fine print, which is why traders are divesting of stocks that might be affected negatively by this historic event. We expect the FTSE to spend the morning in negative territory.

Commodities, which are affected by the US dollar, have been range bound, while awaiting news about the bailout. Investors believe that this bailout will have a negative effect on the US dollar, which in turn may make commodities more expensive. If the bailout is finalized tomorrow, look for oil and gold to have a very volatile day.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicates a flat opening as traders wait for the release of the European IFO numbers. While this is not UK data, it will affect the FTSE depending on how strong the number will be. After further research we believe the number will be stronger then expected. This should result in a higher opening for the FTSE.

Oil traders were at the mercy of the US dollar yesterday as the bailout bill was debated in congress. We expect the same today, with the added volatility of the inventory numbers to be released around 10.30 AM EST. It seems like the November contract is poised to break above the 110 dollars per barrel level.

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BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing

Traders, investors, and financial journalists must have been glad to reach the end of a week that will surely go down in the history of financial markets. The FTSE closed the week just 66 points down which the S&P 500 actually managed a small profit. Homeowner, the closing figures do not even begin to tell the whole story with the FTSE trading in a 521 point range and posting its best one day rally in history on Friday.

The turmoil began last week with the bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This raised hopes of a similar bail out of the Lehman Brothers. To say that investors were shocked when Lehmans was not only denied a bailout, but filed for insolvency would be an understatement. Lehmans collapse sent shockwaves throughout equity markets sparking a domino effect that knocked over Merrill Lynch, AIG and HBOS .

Even the most seasoned investors had a hard time steadying themselves last week as the newswires continue pump out dark news, and once in a generation headlines. Fear was understandably widespread with the Russian stock market suspended indefinitely after dropping 10% in an hour, and a large money market fund breaking the buck, meaning they lost their unit holders money. When the supposed safe havens of money market funds start to break down, investors see little choice but to fly to quality. There is a flood of assets transferring to safety of short term US Government Treasuries, forcing the yield on three month Treasury Bonds down to their lowest level since the great depression. Gold endured a remarkable week trading in a $140 range before closing the week up around $90.

On the economic data front, US CPI was in line with expectations, and oil prices have continued to stay below $100. Both of these factors indicate that the inflation monster may be coming back under control. However, the FOMC voted to keep rates on hold last week, initially markets had a mixed reaction. Many believe the Fed has now left itself some ammunition to deal with a weakening economy further down the line. It also sent out the signal that it would not be influenced by market makers into cutting rates as they did back in July.

It was the two emergency announcements on Wednesday and Thursday that had the greatest impact last week. After central banks dropped a coordinated liquidity bomb overnight on Wednesday, global equity and credit markets initially seemed to show a very cautious reaction. The greatest reaction seemed to come from the Feds plan to create a giant bad bank that would absorb many of the toxic subprime assets held by banks. This measure accompanied with a crack down on short sellers, seemed to have hit the nail on the head for the financial institutions, with the root cause of the credit crunch (sub prime assets) being attacked.

Next weeks headlines will be dominated by Ben Bernankes testimony before congress starting on Wednesday. We also have US existing home sales on Wednesday and new home sales on Thursday. However, the planned economic announcements could be secondary to any surprise headlines or further emergency measures. When stock markets move percentage points in the matter of minutes, anything can happen.

Although equity markets bounced last week, the panic at one stage reached such an extreme that the yield on 3 month US Treasuries reached 0.02% on Thursday, returning just $2 on a $10,000 investment. Investors werent just running to safety, they were blindly staggering to anywhere with no exposure to the credit markets. When investors press the panic button as they undoubtedly have done, there is potential for a counter rally to set in the short term as we saw on Friday. However, looking at large crashes from 1987, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2001, the follow on reaction is typically a range bound market. A barrier range trade returns a profit if neither of two predetermined levels are hit within a specified time. A barrier range trade predicting the Dow Jones not to touch 12200 or 10500 over the next 16 days could return 39%.

BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening after the FSA announced that they will be restricting short selling on selected stocks as of September 19th. This restriction should bring some pause to the selling pressure on the financial stocks. The FSA is hoping it will be as successful as the SEC was in August when they restricted short selling in the United States.

Oil spiked above 100 dollars per barrel before settling down around the 98 dollars per barrel level. Lost in all of this, is the fact that oil will post its third declining week. As the dollar gains against the euro, its limiting the appeal of commodities to investors amid forecasts of slowing global demand.

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BetOnMarkets - Central banks dropped a coordinated liquidity bomb

After central banks dropped a coordinated liquidity bomb overnight, global equity and credit markets have reacted well. Although the bounce off the lows is at least a step in the right direction, the impact still has to be seen as cautious at best. Today, investors and financial institutions have shut the door on the financial apocalypse, but the storm is still there. It will be some time before investors will step out side confidently from the safety of the sidelines. Although equity markets are bouncing the panic has reached such an extreme that the yield on 3 month US Treasuries reached 0.02% yesterday, returning just $2 on a $10,000 investment. Investors aren’t just running to safety, they were blindly staggering to anywhere with no exposure to the credit markets. When investors press the panic button as they undoubtedly have done, there is the potential for a counter rally to set in the short term. These exhaustion lows are almost impossible to time perfectly, and require a better response than we are seeing today to set them in motion, but there at least the potential for a short term bottom to be formed in and around the next few days.

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BetOnMarkets - Commodities benefited from the turmoil

The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening as a buyout of HBOS by Lloyds TSB, has the blessing of the UK government. Sources indicate that the government will seek to waive antitrust restrictions to permit the takeover. Look for other vulnerable companies to get a boost in share price, as traders are counting on cashing in on another takeover.

Commodities benefited from the turmoil in the US equities market yesterday with gold adding more then 70 dollars to its value and oil adding 6 dollars to its per barrel price. We can see gold reaching 900 dollars per ounce before the end of the week, as investors are running for the safe haven that precious metals provided during turbulent times like this week

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BetOnMarkets - US government bailed out AIG

The FTSE is currently indicating a high opening. Investors around the world are breathing a sigh of relief after it was announced that the US government bailed out AIG. The announcement has bumped up the FTSE to more then 1% in the pre-open markets.

Oil tried its hardest to breach the 90 dollars per barrel mark, however support finally came back into the market, allowing the price to rebound and is currently trading at more then 94 dollars per barrel. Look for the price of oil to be volatile today as the inventory numbers will be very unpredictable

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BetOnMarkets - The horrible week ( Day 2)

The horrible week has entered day two, as the FTSE is indicating yet another really weak opening. While inflation will be front and center today, the financial meltdown will sadly be the theme of the day yet again. The bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, while almost expected, sent all financial companies down by double digit percent and we expect the same losses on the FTSE. Currently the FTSE is set to open more then 1.75% down.

Oil had a busy Monday, finally breaking below the 100 dollars per barrel mark. Unfortunately it defiantly did not stop there, as it also broke below the 95 dollar level. Look for oil to be very volatile today especially around 2 pm EST, as this is when the latest rate decision from the FOMC is announced. There is potential for oil to break below the 90 dollars per barrel mark which will help out consumers and airline companies.

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BetOnMarkets - They call it the Freddie and Fannie Frenzy

A week that showed so much promise ended up being a huge let down. A lot of ink was spent on the take over of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by the US government, and it allowed equity markets around the world to open the first trading day up 3%. This sadly didn’t last, as traders realized quickly that this take over was akin to putting a band-aid over a third degree burn; it was not a long term solution.

The theme for next week is inflation, as UK, EU and USA are all releasing some sort of inflation numbers. This is important for traders of Equities, Futures and Forex as these numbers will have a strong effect on each of those categories. We expect inflation to be high in every country, as rising commodity prices are filtering into the consumer prices at this time of the year. Also on a side note, this Wednesday, the Bank of England will be releasing minutes from their last meeting, while most of the information is stale; there are a few useful titbits which can give you a glimpse into the future about the BOE’s concerns when it votes on a rate decision.

There is uncertainty in the equities market; smart traders use every move up to short the overall market. The most obvious sign that the market is jittery came on Monday, when in the middle of a huge run-up, a stale story of a bankruptcy filling by American Airlines caused a huge dip in the major indexes.

As a result, traders at BetOnMarkets believe a one touch to the down-side of the Wall Street index is the best value play out there. A one touch at 11200 on the Wall Street Index (Dow Jones) with a 14 day term returns more than 22% ROI.

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