The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, as a worse then expected consumer confidence report has thrown ice water on the recent rally. The survey shows that consumers are spooked and are delaying major purchases. This is not good news for retail stocks, which are expected to open weaker this morning. There is a chance that the FTSE will incur a case of profit taking today to close out the week
The boost that oil received on Tuesday after the interest rate was cut, was short lived as crude oil finds itself trading below 65 dollars per barrel again. The end of the month will mark the biggest single month drop since trading started in 1983. We expect a quiet day to end out the week.
BetOnMarkets
New Financial Website. Try it Now!
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Today’s US GDP figures hit the headlines, showing that the US economy shrank by 0.3%, the most since 2001. The figure was actually not as drastic as initially expected and as a result, markets have managed to hold on to the morning’s gains. Aside from the market’s reaction to US GSD figures, expectations of a rate cut from the bank of Japan tomorrow has sent Asian markets soaring over the last three days and the rest of the world has been rallying hard with them. The Nikkei is currently up a staggering 26% since Tuesday alone, thought it will have to do the same again and more to recoup the 33% losses since the start of the 3rd quarter.
In the UK, the energy sector is being pulled in different directions. The previously soaring energy prices helped Royal Dutch Shell to report a better than expected 71% jump in 3Q profits, yet their share price is down around 4% on the day. Investors are less interested in the profits shell has just made, and are more concerned about the prospect of future growth. Judging by today’s share price reaction, investors see much lower profits in the future now oil has turned the corner. On the other hand smaller UK oil services companies such as Petrofac and Amec are performing well today. There is speculation that these support companies might be better able to ride out lower oil prices with their lower cost base and reduced direct exposure to oil prices.
BetOnMarkets
In the UK, the energy sector is being pulled in different directions. The previously soaring energy prices helped Royal Dutch Shell to report a better than expected 71% jump in 3Q profits, yet their share price is down around 4% on the day. Investors are less interested in the profits shell has just made, and are more concerned about the prospect of future growth. Judging by today’s share price reaction, investors see much lower profits in the future now oil has turned the corner. On the other hand smaller UK oil services companies such as Petrofac and Amec are performing well today. There is speculation that these support companies might be better able to ride out lower oil prices with their lower cost base and reduced direct exposure to oil prices.
BetOnMarkets
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Today’s rally has helped ensure that October 2008 is spared the embarrassment of being one of the worst months on record, but we are far from being out of the woods yet. Since September there have been two rallies of today’s magnitude on the FTSE and in each case, the gains were wiped out in just over week. October 13ths big rally promised much but the day’s gains were reversed within just three days. Although October could mark an intermediate term low point, it is highly unlikely that it will be plain sailing from here. What is more likely over the next 3-6 months is continued volatility with many more days rising or falling by 5%. If (big if) we can get some follow on buying from here over the next week or so, we could continue to back and fill higher over the next few months.
Before this can happen, markets face a very harsh test with the US interest rate decision this evening. Currently a cut down to 1% is the most likely scenario, though some are calling for a cut down to 0.75%. Although this may happen eventually, we believe that a cut greater than 0.5% this month is less likely than people think. The continued improvements in the credit markets are a factor, the Fed may fear using up all their bullets too soon as Japan did after their economic boom turned to bust in the 80s and 90s. When rates reach 0% there is nowhere else to go.
BetOnMarkets
Before this can happen, markets face a very harsh test with the US interest rate decision this evening. Currently a cut down to 1% is the most likely scenario, though some are calling for a cut down to 0.75%. Although this may happen eventually, we believe that a cut greater than 0.5% this month is less likely than people think. The continued improvements in the credit markets are a factor, the Fed may fear using up all their bullets too soon as Japan did after their economic boom turned to bust in the 80s and 90s. When rates reach 0% there is nowhere else to go.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a very strong opening, as the global rally continues. The buying which started late in US trading and resulted in the SP500 to close up almost 11 percent, is poised to continue this morning in London. Although its too early to celebrate, traders are seeing signs that the credit market, which earlier this year paralyzed the stock markets, is easing up. While we are not certain if this was the bottom of the barrel, what we are certain of is that volatility will continue.
Commodity traders will be waiting until the inventory report by the US energy department is released before deciding the next short term direction for oil. While there are worries that a global slow down will cause the demand to fall faster, the OPEC cuts supplies for the near term oil should be helped by the cold weather that has hit the US this week. Look for oil to stay above 63 dollars until the inventory report is in.
BetOnMarkets
Commodity traders will be waiting until the inventory report by the US energy department is released before deciding the next short term direction for oil. While there are worries that a global slow down will cause the demand to fall faster, the OPEC cuts supplies for the near term oil should be helped by the cold weather that has hit the US this week. Look for oil to stay above 63 dollars until the inventory report is in.
BetOnMarkets
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Today the buyers stepped out of the shadows, but yet again the sellers stepped in to push markets off their highs off the day. The FTSE and other world indices are still in positive territory for the day, but a wave of poor economic data has kept a lid on any sustained buying. US house prices are down 16.6% year on year, having slumped over 30% since their peak in 2004. In the face of a continual erosion of the value of their homes and the ever present warnings about the biggest slow down since the great depression, it is little wonder that US consumer confidence figures came out at record levels. Today’s reading of 38.0 is the lowest in the indicator’s history going back to 1967.
Markets are still extremely jittery as evidence by today’s wild ride on Volkswagen which temporarily became the world’s largest company by market capitalisation, overtaking ExxonMobil for a short while as it rose above 1,000 Euros this morning. Just two days ago, it was trading at 200 Euros. Porche increased their stake in the company to 75%, but the real reason for the huge spike was the squeeze on short traders. Volkswagen has the highest short interest of any stock on the German DAX index. Although shareholders in Volkswagen are rather happy right now, today’s spike is more a symptom of the lack of liquidity in today’s market place. The German DAX is the best performing index today, largely on the back of the Volkswagen move.
BetOnMarkets
Markets are still extremely jittery as evidence by today’s wild ride on Volkswagen which temporarily became the world’s largest company by market capitalisation, overtaking ExxonMobil for a short while as it rose above 1,000 Euros this morning. Just two days ago, it was trading at 200 Euros. Porche increased their stake in the company to 75%, but the real reason for the huge spike was the squeeze on short traders. Volkswagen has the highest short interest of any stock on the German DAX index. Although shareholders in Volkswagen are rather happy right now, today’s spike is more a symptom of the lack of liquidity in today’s market place. The German DAX is the best performing index today, largely on the back of the Volkswagen move.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets
In the afternoon traders will be paying attention to the US consumer confidence report, which could have the possibility to lift the world wide equity markets out of the recent funk.
Oil has hit a 17 month low, on speculations that the global financial crisis may slash fuel demand. Oil is down more then 56% since its July 11th peak and it seems that prices are heading lower after OPEC cut oil demand projections for 2009. It seems that the traders that used oil as a hedge against the US economy are now feeling the pain having overlooked the fact that with the world being interconnected, a slowdown in US means a slowdown everywhere else.
BetOnMarkets
Oil has hit a 17 month low, on speculations that the global financial crisis may slash fuel demand. Oil is down more then 56% since its July 11th peak and it seems that prices are heading lower after OPEC cut oil demand projections for 2009. It seems that the traders that used oil as a hedge against the US economy are now feeling the pain having overlooked the fact that with the world being interconnected, a slowdown in US means a slowdown everywhere else.
BetOnMarkets
Monday, October 27, 2008
Worst year on record for global stock markets
With Friday's falls, 2008 is shaping up to be the worst year on record for global stock markets. Last week the FTSE 100 fell 5%, the DAX 4.96% and the CAC 3.54. In the US, the Dow was off 5.35% on the week and the S&P 500 down 6.78%. From its peak on the 9th of October 2007, the S&P 500 has now declined a massive 44%% from its peak on October 9th 2007. There is still some way to go to match with 1931's -62% decline from a peak without a 20% reversal. That said, the current bear market is currently in the top 5 collapses from a peak without a 20% reversal. Bank of England governor Mervyn King grabbed the headlines last week by daring to mention the R word. Friday's dire UK GDP figures were the final nail in the coffin, sparking the flood of selling witnessed at the end of last week. Markets have been pricing in the likelihood of a UK recession for some time, but King's comments and the GDP figures hit home because they imply a deeper and uglier recession than previously feared.
The Dollar reigned supreme last week as the Pound and Euro fell heavily. Although the US economy is also in dire straits, their interest rates have less distance to fall at 1.5% currently. By contrast the UK has a relatively high interest rate at 4.5%, and with a deteriating economic climate, these rates are set to tumble. Interest rates in the Eurozone are currently 3.75% with expectations for further cuts. As expectations for lower interest rates are negative for currencies, last week's dramatic falls imply deep cuts to come from the Bank of England. The last time the Pound fell so much against the Dollar was when the Pound was ejected from the ERM. The recent collapse is eerily similar to the 1992 plunge. Then as now, the pound fell from above $2 to the pound to less than $1.60 in less than three months. The eventual low of that run was 1.4068 in January 1992. If that run is anything to go by, the current run on the pound could have further to go.
Alistair Darling's plan to borrow his way out of trouble, and Sarkozy's left leaning call to support the Eurozone's troubled industries as the US did with their auto manufacturers have put considerable pressure on the Pound and Euro. Barclay's announcement that it is planning the first government guaranteed bond sale has also added to the list of potential liabilities facing UK plc. The prospects of growth for the financial sector also hit sentiment last week. Large US companies disappointed with their earnings announcements, and investors priced in the worst quarterly cut in dividends since 1944. The majority of these cuts are in the financial sector.
This weeks economic announcements are dominated by the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday. Federal fund futures are currently implying a 45% chance of a cut down to 1%. This seems the most likely outcome for this weeks meeting though a cut down to 0.75% cannot be ruled out and the futures market is currently implying a 30% chance of this happening.
One positive from last week, was that the credit markets are showing increasing signs of improvement with overnight Libor looking more like overnight Libor. Even three month Libor has continued to improve. The coordinated moves from central governments seem to have hit their mark, although it all came too late for the wider economy. Financial markets are already starting to discount a deep recession. Oil prices coming off the boil will help embattled consumers, but oil stocks contributed significantly to the FTSE's positive performance in the last three years, not to mention the extra tax revenue for the treasury.
With UK banks forced to cut their dividend growth, and warnings from some commentators such as Tassim Taleb, that banks will now become more like utilities than engines of financial speculation, growth in the financial sector may never again reach the heights achieved in the last two decades. With the FTSE's two major sectors in reverse, the prospects of a meaningful recovery for the FTSE look remote. A One Touch trade predicting that the FTSE 100 will touch 3100 at any time during the next 6 months could return 50% at BetOnMarkets.
The Dollar reigned supreme last week as the Pound and Euro fell heavily. Although the US economy is also in dire straits, their interest rates have less distance to fall at 1.5% currently. By contrast the UK has a relatively high interest rate at 4.5%, and with a deteriating economic climate, these rates are set to tumble. Interest rates in the Eurozone are currently 3.75% with expectations for further cuts. As expectations for lower interest rates are negative for currencies, last week's dramatic falls imply deep cuts to come from the Bank of England. The last time the Pound fell so much against the Dollar was when the Pound was ejected from the ERM. The recent collapse is eerily similar to the 1992 plunge. Then as now, the pound fell from above $2 to the pound to less than $1.60 in less than three months. The eventual low of that run was 1.4068 in January 1992. If that run is anything to go by, the current run on the pound could have further to go.
Alistair Darling's plan to borrow his way out of trouble, and Sarkozy's left leaning call to support the Eurozone's troubled industries as the US did with their auto manufacturers have put considerable pressure on the Pound and Euro. Barclay's announcement that it is planning the first government guaranteed bond sale has also added to the list of potential liabilities facing UK plc. The prospects of growth for the financial sector also hit sentiment last week. Large US companies disappointed with their earnings announcements, and investors priced in the worst quarterly cut in dividends since 1944. The majority of these cuts are in the financial sector.
This weeks economic announcements are dominated by the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday. Federal fund futures are currently implying a 45% chance of a cut down to 1%. This seems the most likely outcome for this weeks meeting though a cut down to 0.75% cannot be ruled out and the futures market is currently implying a 30% chance of this happening.
One positive from last week, was that the credit markets are showing increasing signs of improvement with overnight Libor looking more like overnight Libor. Even three month Libor has continued to improve. The coordinated moves from central governments seem to have hit their mark, although it all came too late for the wider economy. Financial markets are already starting to discount a deep recession. Oil prices coming off the boil will help embattled consumers, but oil stocks contributed significantly to the FTSE's positive performance in the last three years, not to mention the extra tax revenue for the treasury.
With UK banks forced to cut their dividend growth, and warnings from some commentators such as Tassim Taleb, that banks will now become more like utilities than engines of financial speculation, growth in the financial sector may never again reach the heights achieved in the last two decades. With the FTSE's two major sectors in reverse, the prospects of a meaningful recovery for the FTSE look remote. A One Touch trade predicting that the FTSE 100 will touch 3100 at any time during the next 6 months could return 50% at BetOnMarkets.
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, following the theme started in Asia. Traders are going through the recent report from Gordon Brown, in which the Prime Minister announced that he will increase Britains spending in order to cushion the countries first recession since 1992. While this is good news for equities, the FTSE is going to open in the red due to the sell off which started in Australia this morning.
Crude oil is trading at a 16 month low amid expectations that OPECs decision to cut production was not enough to get prices back to the summer levels. Gold traders have been frustrated lately, as gold prices have dropped by more then 150 dollars per ounce, as a result of a strengthening US dollar. There is a strong indication that oil might touch 60 dollars per barrel before putting a halt to the recent slide.
BetOnMarkets
Crude oil is trading at a 16 month low amid expectations that OPECs decision to cut production was not enough to get prices back to the summer levels. Gold traders have been frustrated lately, as gold prices have dropped by more then 150 dollars per ounce, as a result of a strengthening US dollar. There is a strong indication that oil might touch 60 dollars per barrel before putting a halt to the recent slide.
BetOnMarkets
Thursday, October 23, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are hedging their bets ahead of the release of the UK GDP numbers. Rumors are flying that the GDP will come out negative, putting more pressure on the UK government to help out the economy. This week we already saw that the British government is running the biggest deficit since World War 2, making it harder for Gordon Brown to spend his way out of a recession like the US government is trying to do. It is likely that the FTSE will spend the day in negative territory.
All eyes will be on the OPEC announcement, as it is obvious that a production cut is coming. The million dollar question will be, how much? Analysts are looking for a cut of more than 2 million barrels, some are even predicting for 3 million. All of this will assure one thing, for a very volatile trading day! If OPEC cuts less than the expected 2 million barrels, we might see prices dip below 60 dollars per barrel.
BetOnMarkets
All eyes will be on the OPEC announcement, as it is obvious that a production cut is coming. The million dollar question will be, how much? Analysts are looking for a cut of more than 2 million barrels, some are even predicting for 3 million. All of this will assure one thing, for a very volatile trading day! If OPEC cuts less than the expected 2 million barrels, we might see prices dip below 60 dollars per barrel.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a weaker opening this morning, as the sell off which started in US last night continues. Traders find themselves caught in a struggle, with both sides afraid of taking charge. The Bears are worried that another intervention will cause a short squeeze, while the Bulls are concerned that stocks have a lot more room to fall. It is possible that the FTSE might get a boost before the opening, as traders await the release of the UK retail sales numbers.
Oil currently finds itself trading at a 16 month low, after the US inventory report showed that the demand for oil is down by almost 10 percent for the year. Analysts are now estimating that OPEC would need to cut its output by more then 1 million barrels per day in order to reverse the recent losses. We believe that oil might actually touch 60 dollars per barrel before the end of the month.
BetOnMarkets
Oil currently finds itself trading at a 16 month low, after the US inventory report showed that the demand for oil is down by almost 10 percent for the year. Analysts are now estimating that OPEC would need to cut its output by more then 1 million barrels per day in order to reverse the recent losses. We believe that oil might actually touch 60 dollars per barrel before the end of the month.
BetOnMarkets
Monday, October 20, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the UK Rightmove House Prices. A weak number might send the FTSE into the red. Money managers around the world are hoping that the volatility, which plagued the stock markets last week, has come to an end. Currently futures indicate a flat opening to all European equity markets and the FTSE.
Oil rose for a second day, on speculation OPEC will cut output in an attempt to halt a slide in prices, which have fallen more than 50 percent from July's record. The OPEC meeting will be held on the 24th of October. With a possible floor in place for oil prices, we might see a test of the 80 dollars per barrel level as we get closer to the meeting.
BetOnMarkets
Oil rose for a second day, on speculation OPEC will cut output in an attempt to halt a slide in prices, which have fallen more than 50 percent from July's record. The OPEC meeting will be held on the 24th of October. With a possible floor in place for oil prices, we might see a test of the 80 dollars per barrel level as we get closer to the meeting.
BetOnMarkets
Friday, October 17, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a higher opening, as traders, after some initial skepticism, are finally buying into the bailout plan. Although there is no UK economic data today, traders will be looking at the US housing and consumer confidence data. A worse then expected consumer confidence number can send both the US equities and the FTSE into the red.
The threat of an OPEC cut at its meeting next week has lifted oil from a 13 month low. Oil which is currently trading around the 73 dollars per barrel mark, has been in a tailspin as worries of a full fledge recession intensifies. We believe that oil prices have hit their lowest and could only go higher from here.
BetOnMarkets
The threat of an OPEC cut at its meeting next week has lifted oil from a 13 month low. Oil which is currently trading around the 73 dollars per barrel mark, has been in a tailspin as worries of a full fledge recession intensifies. We believe that oil prices have hit their lowest and could only go higher from here.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
After an opening plunge that saw the FTSE hit it’s lowest level for five years, UK shares have at least managed to rebound to trade above the lows of last week. The catalyst yet again is the deep malaise in the banking sector. The markets started with the shock announcement that UBS and Credit Suisse were in need of urgent funds. It hardly got better as the day progressed with US financial firms releasing some ugly earnings figures. Merrill Lynch reported its fifth straight quarterly loss and Citigroup reported a $2.8 billion loss. UK financials are mixed at best as it is reported that Lloyds TSB is lobbying to be able to pay its shareholders dividends. With much of the sentiment and credit worthiness of a financial shares tied to their share price, it is little wonder that UK banks are keen to be able to maintain a dividend payment of sorts. UK banks have hardly moved upwards since the announced bail out plan, not least because the plan cut off the income element that had attracted many to invest in the banks over the last few year. A dividend income provided some comfort to shareholders hit by falling share prices, now this is gone, UK banks appear even less attractive than they did before the bailout even though they are technically safer entities.
There is also the fact that not a penny of the billions promised by the UK and US government has actually landed in the bank’s accounts yet. At a time when cash is king, the banks are still lacking, albeit temporarily.
Many are drawing parallels with the great depression era around 1930. It is interesting to note that the last time the Dow Jones dropped by 7.5% or more three times in a single month was 1929. Then, as now there were big falls followed by snap rallies, followed by further selling. Anyone thinking that this couldn’t get any worse might want to take a look at the performance of the Dow after it recovered off the 1929 November lows. After rallying to 300 over then next 6 months, the Dow subsequently rolled over and dropped a massive 84% to 50. While this may not happen this time, it is worth considering that a fall of this magnitude has happened before.
BetOnMarkets
There is also the fact that not a penny of the billions promised by the UK and US government has actually landed in the bank’s accounts yet. At a time when cash is king, the banks are still lacking, albeit temporarily.
Many are drawing parallels with the great depression era around 1930. It is interesting to note that the last time the Dow Jones dropped by 7.5% or more three times in a single month was 1929. Then, as now there were big falls followed by snap rallies, followed by further selling. Anyone thinking that this couldn’t get any worse might want to take a look at the performance of the Dow after it recovered off the 1929 November lows. After rallying to 300 over then next 6 months, the Dow subsequently rolled over and dropped a massive 84% to 50. While this may not happen this time, it is worth considering that a fall of this magnitude has happened before.
BetOnMarkets
Thursday, October 16, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Consumer confidence regarding the health of the economy is about to be rattled again, as the FTSE is indicating a very weak opening. The slump that started in US, where the SP500 suffered its worst one day loss since 1987 has continued the sell off into Asia and will move into Europe and UK as the FTSE is indicating an open down more then 4 percent.
Oil seemed to strengthen in the morning before the weakness in the equities market sent oil prices down by more then 6 dollars per barrel. Due to a holiday on Monday, the US oil inventory numbers will be released this afternoon, which should provide some fundamental direction to the black gold, which lately has been caught in a cross fire between equity weakness and US dollar strength. We do not expect for the price of oil to dip below 70 dollars a barrel.
BetOnMarkets
Oil seemed to strengthen in the morning before the weakness in the equities market sent oil prices down by more then 6 dollars per barrel. Due to a holiday on Monday, the US oil inventory numbers will be released this afternoon, which should provide some fundamental direction to the black gold, which lately has been caught in a cross fire between equity weakness and US dollar strength. We do not expect for the price of oil to dip below 70 dollars a barrel.
BetOnMarkets
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a lower opening, brining the 2 day rally to an end. While some investors might attribute the lower opening to profit taking, others are worried that the sagging corporate profits will overshadow the bailout. Currently the FTSE is indicating an opening down by 2 percent.
Oil has tracked movements in equity markets this month, as the credit crisis deepened. Oil traders will have a full plate tomorrow as they await the release of the inventory supplies data. There is a strong possibility that oil will touch the 75 dollar per barrel level before stabilizing.
BetOnMarkets
Oil has tracked movements in equity markets this month, as the credit crisis deepened. Oil traders will have a full plate tomorrow as they await the release of the inventory supplies data. There is a strong possibility that oil will touch the 75 dollar per barrel level before stabilizing.
BetOnMarkets
Sunday, October 12, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a very strong open as traders disseminate the events of the weekend. Following the trend started in Britain, EU will pump billions of dollars to stabilize the EU banks in exchange for shares in the companies. The futures are indicating that traders are excited about this turn of events. The European equity markets are indicating opening the trading week up more then 5%.
Oil prices rose from their 13 months lows, on the news of the European bailout. Many analysts speculate that the action by European leaders to prevent the regions major lenders from collapsing, may help slow credit market turmoil that threatens to stall the global economy. Currently oil is trading at around the 80 dollar mark, however there is a strong chance that the price per barrel will end up in the low 70s before stabilizing.
BetOnMarkets
Oil prices rose from their 13 months lows, on the news of the European bailout. Many analysts speculate that the action by European leaders to prevent the regions major lenders from collapsing, may help slow credit market turmoil that threatens to stall the global economy. Currently oil is trading at around the 80 dollar mark, however there is a strong chance that the price per barrel will end up in the low 70s before stabilizing.
BetOnMarkets
Thursday, October 9, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a very weak opening and is poised to have the worse week since 1987. The London index was closed when the major sell off started in U.S., forcing the Dow Jones to its lowest close in more then 5 years. However the sell off continued in Asia, with all markets suffering equal losses. Currently futures are indicating for a 8% loss, we might see the FTSE touch double digit losses unless there is government intervention, which is very possible.
Oil fell for a third day as demand dropped and global stock markets plunged on concern that the global credit crisis will push countries including the U.S. into a recession. Gold which has been historically the investment of choice during uncertain times, has climbed past the 900 dollar per ounce mark and it seems like it will touch the 1000 dollar mark before the end of the month.
BetOnMarkets
Oil fell for a third day as demand dropped and global stock markets plunged on concern that the global credit crisis will push countries including the U.S. into a recession. Gold which has been historically the investment of choice during uncertain times, has climbed past the 900 dollar per ounce mark and it seems like it will touch the 1000 dollar mark before the end of the month.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a slightly higher opening, after the Bank of England, the EBC and FOMC all cut their lending interest rates yesterday. Rumors are circulating that because the BOEs next meeting is not scheduled until November, there might be another rate cut soon.
There is a strong chance that the FTSE will end up in the red at some point during todays trading day.
Oil fell for a second day as the global economic crisis curbed demand also hurting the price of oil was the U.S. government report of a bigger-than-expected gain in crude and gasoline inventories. With the strengthening of the US dollar, there is a good chance that oil prices will test the 85 dollars per barrel mark before the end of the week.
BetOnMarkets
There is a strong chance that the FTSE will end up in the red at some point during todays trading day.
Oil fell for a second day as the global economic crisis curbed demand also hurting the price of oil was the U.S. government report of a bigger-than-expected gain in crude and gasoline inventories. With the strengthening of the US dollar, there is a good chance that oil prices will test the 85 dollars per barrel mark before the end of the week.
BetOnMarkets
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Although the sub prime mess originated in the US, this has always been a global credit crunch. European banks were some of the biggest buyers of sub prime securities so when the crisis developed, any one of the world’s major banks could have been holding toxic assets. This in turn led us to the historical coordinated action by the world’s central banks today. Each government has attempted to deal with the crisis with specific interventions in their area but only a coordinated act like the rate cuts we have seen to day could truly hope to have any real impact.
Markets still do not know what to make of today’s dramatic intervention. UK banks such as Lloyds and Barclays are off their lows of the day, but traders are not exactly piling in like no tomorrow. This might possibly be a function of fears about the UK ‘part nationalisation’ bail out severely crimping any hope of significant shareholder return over the coming years. With an electorate footing the bill and politicians possibly having a say in the running of affairs, juicy dividends for shareholders may be a thing of the past. European markets are still down around 2-3% on the day and the Dow is swinging 50 points in the blink of an eye. Around the quiet period and intermediate high of August, the FTSE had a daily range of around 60 points. Today it is moving that much every 15 minutes. These are extraordinary times and many technical indicators are flashing at levels never seen before. At best central governments are hoping that the coordinated rate bomb has stopped Armageddon, there is now no hope of the UK, US, Irish and Spanish economies avoiding recession. The worse case doesn’t bare thinking about. If today’s coordinated intervention doesn’t at least start breath life into the frozen money markets, one has to wonder what surprise moves the global governments can take next.
BetOnMarkets
Markets still do not know what to make of today’s dramatic intervention. UK banks such as Lloyds and Barclays are off their lows of the day, but traders are not exactly piling in like no tomorrow. This might possibly be a function of fears about the UK ‘part nationalisation’ bail out severely crimping any hope of significant shareholder return over the coming years. With an electorate footing the bill and politicians possibly having a say in the running of affairs, juicy dividends for shareholders may be a thing of the past. European markets are still down around 2-3% on the day and the Dow is swinging 50 points in the blink of an eye. Around the quiet period and intermediate high of August, the FTSE had a daily range of around 60 points. Today it is moving that much every 15 minutes. These are extraordinary times and many technical indicators are flashing at levels never seen before. At best central governments are hoping that the coordinated rate bomb has stopped Armageddon, there is now no hope of the UK, US, Irish and Spanish economies avoiding recession. The worse case doesn’t bare thinking about. If today’s coordinated intervention doesn’t at least start breath life into the frozen money markets, one has to wonder what surprise moves the global governments can take next.
BetOnMarkets
Monday, October 6, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders look through yesterdays wreckage for possible investment opportunities. The equities market might get another boost before the opening, as analysts expect that the UK industrial production numbers will come out better then expected. We are looking for a big pop at the open.
Commodities have been taken and beaten up, yet again, as traders keep buying the US dollar. Oil found itself trading below the 90 dollar per barrel level yesterday and it seems like the trend will continue lower until OPEC cuts output. The only winner yesterday was gold, which finds itself the investment of choice, while the equity markets flirts with disaster.
BetOnMarkets
Commodities have been taken and beaten up, yet again, as traders keep buying the US dollar. Oil found itself trading below the 90 dollar per barrel level yesterday and it seems like the trend will continue lower until OPEC cuts output. The only winner yesterday was gold, which finds itself the investment of choice, while the equity markets flirts with disaster.
BetOnMarkets
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are awaiting the release of the nationwide house prices. Also helping the equity markets is the possible rate cut by the ECB today at 11.45 am GMT. An interest rate cut historically helps the equity markets and today should not be any different. The FTSE should spend most of the day in positive territory.
Commodities benefited from the passage of the rescue bill, with oil stabilizing around the 100 dollars per barrel mark. Oil prices are more volatile today than at any other time since the Gulf War in 1991. The last seven days were a perfect example of that as Oil futures plunged 9.8 percent on Sept. 29, the biggest drop in seven years, after Congress voted to reject the bank rescue plan. A week earlier a record 16 percent jump led regulators to say they were on the lookout for price manipulation. We expect for prices to stabilize before the employment report on Friday.
BetOnMarkets
Commodities benefited from the passage of the rescue bill, with oil stabilizing around the 100 dollars per barrel mark. Oil prices are more volatile today than at any other time since the Gulf War in 1991. The last seven days were a perfect example of that as Oil futures plunged 9.8 percent on Sept. 29, the biggest drop in seven years, after Congress voted to reject the bank rescue plan. A week earlier a record 16 percent jump led regulators to say they were on the lookout for price manipulation. We expect for prices to stabilize before the employment report on Friday.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as rumors intensify that another bailout bill will be introduced in congress today. The rumor was the main reason for the huge recoveries that were enjoyed by equity markets around the world. This recovery was anticipated, as historically meltdowns on Wall Street often attracted bargain hunters. Not all the news yesterday was positive, as the credit market has shown no sign of relief despite the possible bailout rumors being circulated. A key rate that banks charge to lend to one another shot higher, a tightening of the availability of credit that could cascade through the economy. We expect the FTSE to spend most of the morning in positive territory.
Oil traders spent the last few days at the mercy of the rumors, however today it regained most of the 10 dollars per barrel it shed on Monday as rumors of the bailout bill being reintroduced broke out yesterday. Oil has spent the last few weeks in the range between 90 and 110 dollars per barrel and there is little to show that the trend will change anytime soon.
BetOnMarkets
Oil traders spent the last few days at the mercy of the rumors, however today it regained most of the 10 dollars per barrel it shed on Monday as rumors of the bailout bill being reintroduced broke out yesterday. Oil has spent the last few weeks in the range between 90 and 110 dollars per barrel and there is little to show that the trend will change anytime soon.
BetOnMarkets
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
