The FTSE is unchanged on the day, but is still managing to outperform US
markets today. This is largely due to playing catch up to Thursdays late
rally on US markets and Monday's stock market closure.
In the UK, banks are up nicely after Barclays announced it may open up
BGI to bidding. This in turn could draw out higher offers for iShares,
which pleased many shareholders who believed Barclays should have held
out for a higher offer from CVC or other bidders.
Early news of Goldman Sach's $1.8bn profit created some excitement in
early trading, but this sentiment h slipped firmly to reverse after an
analyst's conference call highlighted some curious accounting changes
behind the numbers. Goldman's changed their accounting period to January
from December for the first quarter, which removed the effect of their
AIG exposure on earnings. Removing December strips out lots of losses
and write offs and it is little wonder than Goldman's sank in early
trading as this analysis was discussed.
This has taken the sheen off early market sentiment, but overall it
markets are still feeling their way back after the long weekend and are
consequently largely unchanged on the day.
BetOnMarkets.com
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Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
The massive influx of money from the US Fed and Treasury has led to a
substantial increase in both crude oil and gold prices today. Crude
prices have pushed higher and look set to register the first meaningful
move about the $50 level since the start of 2009. Gold endured a
remarkable days trading yesterday and is trading up at $955 on the day
today. It is no coincidence that these two markets are trading higher in
tandem as they are both linked with inflation expectations. Gold is
traditionally seen as an inflation hedge while oil is a barometer for
global economic activity. With the Fed turning on the printing presses
yesterday, inflation fears are once again creeping into investor's
conscience.
The Fed's plans have been described as a shock and awe tactic, a phrase
used to describe the initial stages of the conflict in Iraq. Yesterday
was certainly a shock with the dollar registering its 3^rd biggest
single day decline ever. However, equities markets aren't exactly in awe
today as investors fret that like the Iraq conflict, there are no plans
in place to tidy up the inflation mess that could be round the corner.
The Greenback's weakness has dampened what would have been an excellent
day for oil majors such as BP which derives much of its income in the
form of US dollars. This has taken the shine of the early promise from
European markets. Surprisingly it is financials that helped to push
markets into the black on the back of the news that Citigroup is going
to perform a reverse stock split. Citi is now down on the day, but
Barclays, Lloyds, RBS and HSBC are all performing well today. The
success of HSBC's rights issue may have also encouraged financials.
BetOnMarkets.com
substantial increase in both crude oil and gold prices today. Crude
prices have pushed higher and look set to register the first meaningful
move about the $50 level since the start of 2009. Gold endured a
remarkable days trading yesterday and is trading up at $955 on the day
today. It is no coincidence that these two markets are trading higher in
tandem as they are both linked with inflation expectations. Gold is
traditionally seen as an inflation hedge while oil is a barometer for
global economic activity. With the Fed turning on the printing presses
yesterday, inflation fears are once again creeping into investor's
conscience.
The Fed's plans have been described as a shock and awe tactic, a phrase
used to describe the initial stages of the conflict in Iraq. Yesterday
was certainly a shock with the dollar registering its 3^rd biggest
single day decline ever. However, equities markets aren't exactly in awe
today as investors fret that like the Iraq conflict, there are no plans
in place to tidy up the inflation mess that could be round the corner.
The Greenback's weakness has dampened what would have been an excellent
day for oil majors such as BP which derives much of its income in the
form of US dollars. This has taken the shine of the early promise from
European markets. Surprisingly it is financials that helped to push
markets into the black on the back of the news that Citigroup is going
to perform a reverse stock split. Citi is now down on the day, but
Barclays, Lloyds, RBS and HSBC are all performing well today. The
success of HSBC's rights issue may have also encouraged financials.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
BetOnMarkets - Today, world stock markets have crumbled under...
Today, world stock markets have crumbled under the relentless barrage of bad news. Investors are flocking to safe havens with the yield on 10 year Treasury bonds sinking to 2.7% and gold pushing up 3% to $370. The Dow Jones Industrial average is just over 0.5% from revisiting the November lows. Despite the dramatic collapse in the banking sector, the FTSE has held up relatively well over the same period, holding around 6% above those lows.
There’s very little for the bulls to hang their hat on at the moment, everywhere you look, the risks seem to outweigh the rewards of investing in the stock market. Banks are again leading the fallers today with Lloyds and HSBC being singled out for punishment. HSBC is down 7% on speculation that it may have to raise more than $15bn to cover write downs and exposure to Eastern Europe. Oil majors, BP and Shell are also under pressure with oil prices touching $35 dollars once again.
In the US, automakers GM and Chryslers still battling to avoid oblivion. The US automaker industry is hanging by a thread. Further support is required to turn the sector round, but this is far from being a dead cert. Legacy costs from benefit support are now crippling the likes of GM. It is ironic that the great US economy is in danger of losing a key industry in part due to lavish benefits negotiated for union workers.
It is also worth noting that like many firms across the world that have gone to the wall, like Woolworths in the UK, US automakers were in trouble before the crisis broke. This global recession, like all recessions is exposing the weak businesses what they really are. It remains to be seen if the remaining companies have enough strength to carry the world economy through the crisis.
BetOnMarkets.com
There’s very little for the bulls to hang their hat on at the moment, everywhere you look, the risks seem to outweigh the rewards of investing in the stock market. Banks are again leading the fallers today with Lloyds and HSBC being singled out for punishment. HSBC is down 7% on speculation that it may have to raise more than $15bn to cover write downs and exposure to Eastern Europe. Oil majors, BP and Shell are also under pressure with oil prices touching $35 dollars once again.
In the US, automakers GM and Chryslers still battling to avoid oblivion. The US automaker industry is hanging by a thread. Further support is required to turn the sector round, but this is far from being a dead cert. Legacy costs from benefit support are now crippling the likes of GM. It is ironic that the great US economy is in danger of losing a key industry in part due to lavish benefits negotiated for union workers.
It is also worth noting that like many firms across the world that have gone to the wall, like Woolworths in the UK, US automakers were in trouble before the crisis broke. This global recession, like all recessions is exposing the weak businesses what they really are. It remains to be seen if the remaining companies have enough strength to carry the world economy through the crisis.
BetOnMarkets.com
Monday, February 16, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a weaker opening, after the rightmove house index showed a 9.1% drop in year over year in home prices. While Monday is expected to be a quiet day, with North America on holiday, Tuesday promises to be a day full of volatility. Between the CPI and retail sales data, we should get a good picture at how the British economy is doing.
Crude oil is trading near the $38 a barrel on speculation that the recession in the world's largest economies will slash demand for fuel and energy. Reports today showed that Japan??s economy, the world's largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China, shrunk at the fastest pace since 1974. Oil prices are likely to trade below the 40 dollars per barrel level until the inventory report later this week.
BetOnMarkets.com
Crude oil is trading near the $38 a barrel on speculation that the recession in the world's largest economies will slash demand for fuel and energy. Reports today showed that Japan??s economy, the world's largest oil consumer after the U.S. and China, shrunk at the fastest pace since 1974. Oil prices are likely to trade below the 40 dollars per barrel level until the inventory report later this week.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Just a short note today -- Effectively markets are on hold pending the
details of US Treasury Secretary Geithner's bank recovery plan an 4PM.
There's also the small issue of the $838 billion stimulus plan which is
going before the senate. Obama last night said that the world's largest
economy faces a 'full blow crisis'. While this may be a statement of
fact, it is hard to know if the intention behind such a stark statement
is partly to facilitate the passing on the new stimulus plan.
In the UK, former RBS chief executive, Sir Tom McKillop wins the award
for understatement of the year with his admission that the purchase of
ABN was a 'bad mistake'. The lion's share of RBS' record losses and
indeed UK the government bailout have been swallowed up by this
disastrous takeover.
BetOnMarkets.com
details of US Treasury Secretary Geithner's bank recovery plan an 4PM.
There's also the small issue of the $838 billion stimulus plan which is
going before the senate. Obama last night said that the world's largest
economy faces a 'full blow crisis'. While this may be a statement of
fact, it is hard to know if the intention behind such a stark statement
is partly to facilitate the passing on the new stimulus plan.
In the UK, former RBS chief executive, Sir Tom McKillop wins the award
for understatement of the year with his admission that the purchase of
ABN was a 'bad mistake'. The lion's share of RBS' record losses and
indeed UK the government bailout have been swallowed up by this
disastrous takeover.
BetOnMarkets.com
Monday, February 9, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
World stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE 100 nudging ahead on a day of tepid trading. The better than expected figures from Barclays has certainly given UK equities on boost, but it is not enough to make the UK’s benchmark index of 100 stocks push through Friday’s trading range.
Barclay’s figures have been well received, but their share price still has a long way to go if it can be deemed to have turned the corner. Last February, Barclay’s shares hit £5.24, even with today’s 12% rise they are still more than £4.00 below this level. The so called independence premium could start to play out in the second half of the year, especially if Barclays start to pay a dividend once again. However, for now, investors are understandably hesitant to take anyone’s word on this.
Wider equities are range bound as the benchmark US indices retreat on the news that the Obama bailout plan won’t be announced until tomorrow. Markets more than anything hate indecision and until a resolution looks likely, or at lease strong rumours of a resolution circulate, equities will trade in a tight range until tomorrow afternoon.
BetOnMarkets.com
Barclay’s figures have been well received, but their share price still has a long way to go if it can be deemed to have turned the corner. Last February, Barclay’s shares hit £5.24, even with today’s 12% rise they are still more than £4.00 below this level. The so called independence premium could start to play out in the second half of the year, especially if Barclays start to pay a dividend once again. However, for now, investors are understandably hesitant to take anyone’s word on this.
Wider equities are range bound as the benchmark US indices retreat on the news that the Obama bailout plan won’t be announced until tomorrow. Markets more than anything hate indecision and until a resolution looks likely, or at lease strong rumours of a resolution circulate, equities will trade in a tight range until tomorrow afternoon.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets - A Better Week for World Stock Markets
A Better Week for World Stock Markets
It was a better week for world stock markets last week, with all the major indices pushing further off the January lows.
Despite Friday’s US payrolls falling by a more than expected 598,000, stock markets powered higher. This was an extremely weak employment report, with 3.5 million fewer Americans employed In January than a year earlier. However, the world’s biggest economy isn’t willing to roll over and die just yet. The rate of decline is accelerating, but US unemployment is still below the peaks of the 1980s and 1970s. Stock markets moved higher on the hope that Friday’s dire figures will act as a catalyst for the massive Obama stimulus package. In the UK, banks pushed higher as speculation mounts that the bad bank plan is back on the cards. RBS is rumoured to be the first test of this model with other banks applying this template if successful. Judging by the rally in financial shares last week, traders are keen on this plan to come to fruition.
Commodities continued to drift lower, with oil falling through support at $40. Oil producers shrugged off the news to finish up on the week. However, lower energy prices cannot be shrugged off by all of those with a stake in the commodity. The Russian government had its credit rating downgraded due to fears over the impact of the collapse in oil prices. The rouble continued its free fall.
Last week, the Bank of England cut rates to 1% as widely expected, and at the same time, the ECB signalled that it may cut rates in March. Despite the cut, it was a good week for Sterling, especially against the euro, as traders adjust their positions in light of the strong rate cut hint from Trichet.
There was some positive news from the Halifax housing report which showed that UK house prices rose last month. However, it is hard to read too much into this rise as the data conflicts with the previously released Nationwide report, and month to month figures are often subject to wide variance. Next week’s highlights include a number of speeches from prominent central bankers including Treasury secretary Geithner, and FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. On Wednesday Governor King speaks at the release of the BOE inflation report. ECB president, Trichet is due to speak on Thursday. Aside from this, we also have US retail sales and unemployment claims on Thursday. When stock markets go up on bad news as they did last week, it is often a good sign that investors have re-discovered their appetite for risk taking.
Even BP and Shell were moving higher on Friday, despite oil prices dipping below $40 a barrel. The bears have been handed plenty of opportunities to take control, but so far today, the bulls have won out. That is arguably a very encouraging indication that 2009 won"t end the year as it started.
A Bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be higher than 8500 in 11 days could return 135% at BetOnMarkets.
BetOnMarkets.com
It was a better week for world stock markets last week, with all the major indices pushing further off the January lows.
Despite Friday’s US payrolls falling by a more than expected 598,000, stock markets powered higher. This was an extremely weak employment report, with 3.5 million fewer Americans employed In January than a year earlier. However, the world’s biggest economy isn’t willing to roll over and die just yet. The rate of decline is accelerating, but US unemployment is still below the peaks of the 1980s and 1970s. Stock markets moved higher on the hope that Friday’s dire figures will act as a catalyst for the massive Obama stimulus package. In the UK, banks pushed higher as speculation mounts that the bad bank plan is back on the cards. RBS is rumoured to be the first test of this model with other banks applying this template if successful. Judging by the rally in financial shares last week, traders are keen on this plan to come to fruition.
Commodities continued to drift lower, with oil falling through support at $40. Oil producers shrugged off the news to finish up on the week. However, lower energy prices cannot be shrugged off by all of those with a stake in the commodity. The Russian government had its credit rating downgraded due to fears over the impact of the collapse in oil prices. The rouble continued its free fall.
Last week, the Bank of England cut rates to 1% as widely expected, and at the same time, the ECB signalled that it may cut rates in March. Despite the cut, it was a good week for Sterling, especially against the euro, as traders adjust their positions in light of the strong rate cut hint from Trichet.
There was some positive news from the Halifax housing report which showed that UK house prices rose last month. However, it is hard to read too much into this rise as the data conflicts with the previously released Nationwide report, and month to month figures are often subject to wide variance. Next week’s highlights include a number of speeches from prominent central bankers including Treasury secretary Geithner, and FOMC chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday. On Wednesday Governor King speaks at the release of the BOE inflation report. ECB president, Trichet is due to speak on Thursday. Aside from this, we also have US retail sales and unemployment claims on Thursday. When stock markets go up on bad news as they did last week, it is often a good sign that investors have re-discovered their appetite for risk taking.
Even BP and Shell were moving higher on Friday, despite oil prices dipping below $40 a barrel. The bears have been handed plenty of opportunities to take control, but so far today, the bulls have won out. That is arguably a very encouraging indication that 2009 won"t end the year as it started.
A Bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be higher than 8500 in 11 days could return 135% at BetOnMarkets.
BetOnMarkets.com
Thursday, February 5, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
The debate still continues over exactly how to rescue the troubled
banking sector, but today's fall is all about something more old
fashioned, more tangible - Namely the state of the recession. Banking
shares have stabilised over the last couple of weeks as confidence grows
that financial apocalypse has been averted. Now that the battle for the
banks appears to be reaching an impasse, attention is turning once again
to the wreckage of the global economy.
After yesterday's better than expected ADP employment figures there was
some hope that the US economy was seeing the light at the end of the
tunnel. Unfortunately, today's unemployment claims data has extinguished
any such hope. The worst unemployment claims data since 1982 comes amid
company earnings that are worse than already dire analyst expectations.
Recently Kraft foods, Disney and Microsoft all fell well short with
their earnings.
Today the Bank of England cut rates to 1% as widely expected and at the
same time, the ECB signalled that it may cut rates in March. Despite
today's cut, it has been a good day for Sterling, especially against the
euro, as traders adjust their positions in light of the strong rate cut
hint from Trichet.
There was some positive news from the Halifax housing report which
showed that UK house prices rose last month. However, it is hard to read
too much into this as the data conflicts with the previously released
Nationwide report and month to month figures are often subject to wide
variance.
BetOnMarkets
banking sector, but today's fall is all about something more old
fashioned, more tangible - Namely the state of the recession. Banking
shares have stabilised over the last couple of weeks as confidence grows
that financial apocalypse has been averted. Now that the battle for the
banks appears to be reaching an impasse, attention is turning once again
to the wreckage of the global economy.
After yesterday's better than expected ADP employment figures there was
some hope that the US economy was seeing the light at the end of the
tunnel. Unfortunately, today's unemployment claims data has extinguished
any such hope. The worst unemployment claims data since 1982 comes amid
company earnings that are worse than already dire analyst expectations.
Recently Kraft foods, Disney and Microsoft all fell well short with
their earnings.
Today the Bank of England cut rates to 1% as widely expected and at the
same time, the ECB signalled that it may cut rates in March. Despite
today's cut, it has been a good day for Sterling, especially against the
euro, as traders adjust their positions in light of the strong rate cut
hint from Trichet.
There was some positive news from the Halifax housing report which
showed that UK house prices rose last month. However, it is hard to read
too much into this as the data conflicts with the previously released
Nationwide report and month to month figures are often subject to wide
variance.
BetOnMarkets
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Markets are roaring higher this afternoon on better than expected economic data from the US. Today’s better than expected ADP jobs report augurs well for Friday’s all important Non Farm Payroll data. Markets are also encouraged by the noises coming from the Obama administration on the use of tax breaks to stimulate the troubled car market.
In the UK, banks are pushing higher as speculation mounts that the bad bank plan is back on the cards. RBS is rumoured to be the first test of this model with other banks applying this template if successful. Judging by the rally in financial shares today, traders are keen on this plan to come to fruition.
Commodities are firmer, with oil finding support above $40. This is welcome news for oil producers such as BP and Shell which have rallied well from the lows of yesterday. It is even better news for the Russian government which had its credit rating downgraded today due to fears over the impact of the collapse in oil prices.
BetOnMarkets.com
In the UK, banks are pushing higher as speculation mounts that the bad bank plan is back on the cards. RBS is rumoured to be the first test of this model with other banks applying this template if successful. Judging by the rally in financial shares today, traders are keen on this plan to come to fruition.
Commodities are firmer, with oil finding support above $40. This is welcome news for oil producers such as BP and Shell which have rallied well from the lows of yesterday. It is even better news for the Russian government which had its credit rating downgraded today due to fears over the impact of the collapse in oil prices.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
BetOnMarkets - Economic Calendar for week 2nd - 5th February 2009
BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT
Monday February 2nd:
UK - Tentative - Halifax HPI M/M.
EU - 09:00 - Final Manufacturing PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Manufacturing PMI.
US - 13:30 - Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US - 13:30 - Personal Spending M/M.
US - 13:30 - Personal Income M/M.
US - 15:00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI.
US - 15:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices.
US - 15:00 - Construction Spending M/M.
Tuesday February 3rd:
UK - 09:30 - Construction PMI.
EU - 10:00 - PPI M/M.
US - 15:00 - Pending Home Sales M/M.
Wednesday February 4th:
UK - 00:01 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence.
EU - 09:00 - Final Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Services PMI.
EU - 10:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 10:30 - BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
US - 12:30 - Challenger Job Cuts.
US - 13:15 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
US - 15:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
US - 15:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday February 5th:
GE - 11:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
UK - 12:00 - Official Bank Rate.
UK - 12:00 - MPC Rate Statement.
EU - 12:45 - Minimum Bid Rate.
EU - 13:30 - ECB Press Conference.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 13:30 - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q.
US - 13:30 - Prelim Unit Labor Costs Q/Q.
US - 15:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
Friday February 6th:
UK -09:30 - Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - PPI Input M/M.
UK - 09:30 - PPI Output M/M.
GE - 10:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
US - 13:30 - Non-Farm Employment Change.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Rate.
US - 13:30 - Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
US - 20:00 - Consumer Credit M/M
US - 22:45 - FOMC Member Yellen Speaks.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
It was a case of two steps forward and two steps back last week for world equity markets.
Global equities were served a reminder of just how difficult bear markets can be. Traders are quick to grab whatever short term profits they have made, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum.
Equities shot out of the starting gate in the early part of the week, largely due to a relief rally in the banking sector. The clear catalyst was the announcement from Barclays that it wont be going to the market or government for more cash. This, more than anything strengthened investors confidence in Barclays and across the sector as a whole. However, as impressive as todays performance is, the rally needs to be put in context. Shares in Barclays are still around 50% lower than they were just two months ago.
It wasnt plain sailing though, with severe selling towards the end of the week. This time, the worry wasnt specifically related to complex financial deficits. Fears were more in relation to general analysis that banks are not the place to be in during a recession. With house prices continuing to plunge on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself is enough to put pressure on banks. This is before you take into account their dire capital adequacy positions.
US house prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by. Near record US jobless claims and record lows in levels of housing starts go hand in hand as job security fears cause home owners to make do with what they have and stay put. The inability to get mortgage on reasonable terms is of course a significant factor.
Adding to the considerable volatility was the number of US companies announcing earnings that fell below analysts expectations. Make do and mend is a view that many shunned during the boom years, but slowly but surely, western consumers are coming round to the idea of keeping their affairs on a tight budget. Microsofts business model largely depends on individuals and businesses buying new computers with upgraded versions of their software installed. With the economic slump starting to bite, consumers are making do with their existing machines or sourcing machines from the very bottom of the range. Last week, Microsofts share price skirted with the November lows, which in turn is the lowest point since 2000. On the other hand, buoyant sales numbers from Apple indicate that like holidays, the iphone & ipod are luxuries that shoppers arent prepared to let go of just yet.
The coming week is full of top tier economic announcements with Fridays Non Farm Payroll numbers top of the pile. Wednesdays ADP employment change will provide a good steer for Fridays numbers. Aside from this we have the rate statement from the MPC on Thursday, with analysts expecting a cut down to 1%. Speculation is also rife that the ECB will follow suit with a cut just 45 minutes later. The Euro was down hard against the pound last on speculation that the European Central Bank now has now choice but to follow other the US and UK and cut towards 1%.
The Euro/ US dollar exchange rate has been relatively range bound over the last three months after a sharp fall starting in August. With the Eurozone potentially having further to go in terms of cutting rates, we could see the euro fall further against the dollar. No world economy is in particularly brilliant shape at the moment, but arguably, the Eurozone may come under further pressure over the next year as its member stats contract at wildly different rates of acceleration. Credit Default Swaps are used as a measure of a particular countrys risk of defaulting on its loans. The score is the cost of insuring $10,000 worth of debt over 5 years. Last week the US was at 75, while France and Germany were at 68 and 59. This might theoretically imply that the Eurozone was in better shape. Unfortunately the risk of other Eurozone nations defaulting is much higher. Irelands risk level was 285, Greece 283, Italy 184 and Portugal 145.
A one touch trade predicting that the Euro/US dollar exchange rate will hit 1.100 in the next 6 months could return 245% at BetOnMarkets.
BetOnMarkets.com
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT
Monday February 2nd:
UK - Tentative - Halifax HPI M/M.
EU - 09:00 - Final Manufacturing PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Manufacturing PMI.
US - 13:30 - Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US - 13:30 - Personal Spending M/M.
US - 13:30 - Personal Income M/M.
US - 15:00 - ISM Manufacturing PMI.
US - 15:00 - ISM Manufacturing Prices.
US - 15:00 - Construction Spending M/M.
Tuesday February 3rd:
UK - 09:30 - Construction PMI.
EU - 10:00 - PPI M/M.
US - 15:00 - Pending Home Sales M/M.
Wednesday February 4th:
UK - 00:01 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence.
EU - 09:00 - Final Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Services PMI.
EU - 10:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 10:30 - BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
US - 12:30 - Challenger Job Cuts.
US - 13:15 - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
US - 15:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
US - 15:30 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday February 5th:
GE - 11:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
UK - 12:00 - Official Bank Rate.
UK - 12:00 - MPC Rate Statement.
EU - 12:45 - Minimum Bid Rate.
EU - 13:30 - ECB Press Conference.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 13:30 - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q.
US - 13:30 - Prelim Unit Labor Costs Q/Q.
US - 15:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
Friday February 6th:
UK -09:30 - Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - PPI Input M/M.
UK - 09:30 - PPI Output M/M.
GE - 10:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
US - 13:30 - Non-Farm Employment Change.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Rate.
US - 13:30 - Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
US - 20:00 - Consumer Credit M/M
US - 22:45 - FOMC Member Yellen Speaks.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
It was a case of two steps forward and two steps back last week for world equity markets.
Global equities were served a reminder of just how difficult bear markets can be. Traders are quick to grab whatever short term profits they have made, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum.
Equities shot out of the starting gate in the early part of the week, largely due to a relief rally in the banking sector. The clear catalyst was the announcement from Barclays that it wont be going to the market or government for more cash. This, more than anything strengthened investors confidence in Barclays and across the sector as a whole. However, as impressive as todays performance is, the rally needs to be put in context. Shares in Barclays are still around 50% lower than they were just two months ago.
It wasnt plain sailing though, with severe selling towards the end of the week. This time, the worry wasnt specifically related to complex financial deficits. Fears were more in relation to general analysis that banks are not the place to be in during a recession. With house prices continuing to plunge on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself is enough to put pressure on banks. This is before you take into account their dire capital adequacy positions.
US house prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by. Near record US jobless claims and record lows in levels of housing starts go hand in hand as job security fears cause home owners to make do with what they have and stay put. The inability to get mortgage on reasonable terms is of course a significant factor.
Adding to the considerable volatility was the number of US companies announcing earnings that fell below analysts expectations. Make do and mend is a view that many shunned during the boom years, but slowly but surely, western consumers are coming round to the idea of keeping their affairs on a tight budget. Microsofts business model largely depends on individuals and businesses buying new computers with upgraded versions of their software installed. With the economic slump starting to bite, consumers are making do with their existing machines or sourcing machines from the very bottom of the range. Last week, Microsofts share price skirted with the November lows, which in turn is the lowest point since 2000. On the other hand, buoyant sales numbers from Apple indicate that like holidays, the iphone & ipod are luxuries that shoppers arent prepared to let go of just yet.
The coming week is full of top tier economic announcements with Fridays Non Farm Payroll numbers top of the pile. Wednesdays ADP employment change will provide a good steer for Fridays numbers. Aside from this we have the rate statement from the MPC on Thursday, with analysts expecting a cut down to 1%. Speculation is also rife that the ECB will follow suit with a cut just 45 minutes later. The Euro was down hard against the pound last on speculation that the European Central Bank now has now choice but to follow other the US and UK and cut towards 1%.
The Euro/ US dollar exchange rate has been relatively range bound over the last three months after a sharp fall starting in August. With the Eurozone potentially having further to go in terms of cutting rates, we could see the euro fall further against the dollar. No world economy is in particularly brilliant shape at the moment, but arguably, the Eurozone may come under further pressure over the next year as its member stats contract at wildly different rates of acceleration. Credit Default Swaps are used as a measure of a particular countrys risk of defaulting on its loans. The score is the cost of insuring $10,000 worth of debt over 5 years. Last week the US was at 75, while France and Germany were at 68 and 59. This might theoretically imply that the Eurozone was in better shape. Unfortunately the risk of other Eurozone nations defaulting is much higher. Irelands risk level was 285, Greece 283, Italy 184 and Portugal 145.
A one touch trade predicting that the Euro/US dollar exchange rate will hit 1.100 in the next 6 months could return 245% at BetOnMarkets.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders wait for the release of the construction purchasing managers index. Analysts are hoping that there will be a rebound in the number which would signal that a rebound in construction. The FTSE might have a chance to open up more then 2 percent if the number comes out better then expected.
Oil is trading back above the 40 dollars per barrel level on speculation that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut its output in January to avoid a supply glut and bolster prices. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer and the world's top oil exporter, reduced output by 375,000 barrels a day last month to an average 8.025 million barrels a day, the lowest since December 2002. Look for oil to test the 42 dollars per barrel level before Wednesday.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4120.1 (+42.6)
CAC40 2981.20 (+52.40)
DAX30 4313.8 (+47.3)
DOW: 7995 (+65)
SP500 831.73 (+7.25)
Gold: 898.75 (-7.70)
Oil: 40.58 (+0.56)
BetOnMarkets.com
Oil is trading back above the 40 dollars per barrel level on speculation that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, cut its output in January to avoid a supply glut and bolster prices. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer and the world's top oil exporter, reduced output by 375,000 barrels a day last month to an average 8.025 million barrels a day, the lowest since December 2002. Look for oil to test the 42 dollars per barrel level before Wednesday.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4120.1 (+42.6)
CAC40 2981.20 (+52.40)
DAX30 4313.8 (+47.3)
DOW: 7995 (+65)
SP500 831.73 (+7.25)
Gold: 898.75 (-7.70)
Oil: 40.58 (+0.56)
BetOnMarkets.com
Friday, January 30, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating lower opening as traders wait for the release of the net consumer credit numbers. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates to help the economy, none of that really matters if the chartered banks are not going to lend that money to consumers or companies. If the numbers come out worse then expected, the FTSE is likely to end the week on a negative note.
Crude oil is set for a weekly decline of 11 percent, as concerns about a deeper U.S. recession outweighed OPEC pledges to increase output cuts. Later today, the US GDP numbers will be released, and analysts are expecting a fall of more then 5%. Should the number come out worse, oil could end the week below the 40 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4170.6 (-15.7)
CAC40 2989.10 (-18.40)
DAX30 4390.3 (-29.5)
DOW: 8182 (+37)
SP500 849.73 (+4.00)
Gold: 902.10 (-4.35)
Oil: 41.56 (+0.01)
BetOnMarkets.com
Crude oil is set for a weekly decline of 11 percent, as concerns about a deeper U.S. recession outweighed OPEC pledges to increase output cuts. Later today, the US GDP numbers will be released, and analysts are expecting a fall of more then 5%. Should the number come out worse, oil could end the week below the 40 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4170.6 (-15.7)
CAC40 2989.10 (-18.40)
DAX30 4390.3 (-29.5)
DOW: 8182 (+37)
SP500 849.73 (+4.00)
Gold: 902.10 (-4.35)
Oil: 41.56 (+0.01)
BetOnMarkets.com
Thursday, January 29, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
After a positive first half of the week, global equities are serving a reminder of just how difficult bear markets can be. Traders are quick to grab whatever short term profits they have made, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum. Banking shares have reversed a good chunk of the gains made over the last few days, but are still holding above the closing levels from last week. Today worry isn’t specifically related to complex financial deficits, fears are more in relation to general analysis that banks are not the place to be in during a recession. With house prices continuing to plunge on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself is enough put pressure on banks. This is before you take into account their dire capital adequacy positions.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets.com
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Equities shot out of the starting gate today on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, it was Lloyd’s turn to join the party after a bullish note from Citi Group whet investors’ appetite for the new banking giant. With a fundamental valuation of financial shares being difficult to say the least, confidence has been the currency of choice ever since the credit crisis broke. Today, confidence is working for the banks as the idea of nationalisation is shoved to the sidelines for now.
US markets launched higher from the open in large part due to the bad bank plan announced by the Obama Government. Such a opening large gap higher is unheard of on a Fed day, normally rate decision days are tight affairs before the announcement. No-one expects the Fed to cut rates this afternoon, but the policy statement will certainly be a market mover and if the markets like what they hear, we could push even higher off the 2008 lows.
BetOnMarkets.com
US markets launched higher from the open in large part due to the bad bank plan announced by the Obama Government. Such a opening large gap higher is unheard of on a Fed day, normally rate decision days are tight affairs before the announcement. No-one expects the Fed to cut rates this afternoon, but the policy statement will certainly be a market mover and if the markets like what they hear, we could push even higher off the 2008 lows.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating higher opening, as traders hope that todays slew of economic data will help shed a positive light on the world economy. While there wont be any UK data today, we will be paying attention to the EU CPI inflation index along with the US interest rate decision this later this afternoon. Should the CPI numbers come out better then expected, the FTSE could get a nice boost.
Commodity prices took a tumble yesterday as the global recession eroded demand for energy, metals and grains. The Energy Department announces the inventory numbers tomorrow, and rumors indicate that stockpiles probably rose again. Look for oil prices to test the 40 dollars per barrel level by the end of the week.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4222.1 (+32.3)
CAC40 3024.30 (+73.00)
DAX30 4361.1 (+30.1)
DOW: 8272 (+108)
SP500 858.98 (+17.00)
Gold: 894.95 (-1.95)
Oil: 41.83 (+0.22)
BetOnMarkets.com
Commodity prices took a tumble yesterday as the global recession eroded demand for energy, metals and grains. The Energy Department announces the inventory numbers tomorrow, and rumors indicate that stockpiles probably rose again. Look for oil prices to test the 40 dollars per barrel level by the end of the week.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4222.1 (+32.3)
CAC40 3024.30 (+73.00)
DAX30 4361.1 (+30.1)
DOW: 8272 (+108)
SP500 858.98 (+17.00)
Gold: 894.95 (-1.95)
Oil: 41.83 (+0.22)
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Financials are still enjoying some follow on buying, but gains have been trimmed from earlier in the day. The main culprit for today’s fall in the FTSE, for once isn’t the banks, but the energy sector. BP and Shell make up a sizeable chunk of the UK’s benchmark index, so with crude down around 5% on the day, it is always going to be difficult for the FTSE to make traction.
After the excitement over yesterday’s new home sales coming in at better than expected, the US housing slump is still showing of signs of abating. Sales of homes may have increased more than expected by volume, but prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by.
BetOnMarkets.com
After the excitement over yesterday’s new home sales coming in at better than expected, the US housing slump is still showing of signs of abating. Sales of homes may have increased more than expected by volume, but prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by.
BetOnMarkets.com
Monday, January 26, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
The clear catalyst for today’s rally has been the announcement from Barclays that it won’t be going to the market or government for more cash. This more than anything has strengthened investor’s confidence in Barclays and across the sector as a whole. However, as impressive as today’s performance is, the rally needs to be put in context. Shares in Barclay’s are still around 50% lower than they were just two weeks ago. Investors are welcoming today’s announcement but the share price still has to more than double to reach the levels it hit at the start of the year.
The banks have been like a bad friend continually asking for money and promising to pay it back, but never doing so. Although they appear to have confessed all their sins today, investors are still cautious still have concerns that they will be let down again despite the claims that the banks have ‘cleaned up’.
Better than expected new home sales from the US are providing a follow on boost for major markets. Prices are still down by record proportions, but there are at least signs that house prices have reached an equilibrium with people’s ability to pay (and get credit). It may be some time before the same can be said about the UK housing market.
BetOnMarkets.com
The banks have been like a bad friend continually asking for money and promising to pay it back, but never doing so. Although they appear to have confessed all their sins today, investors are still cautious still have concerns that they will be let down again despite the claims that the banks have ‘cleaned up’.
Better than expected new home sales from the US are providing a follow on boost for major markets. Prices are still down by record proportions, but there are at least signs that house prices have reached an equilibrium with people’s ability to pay (and get credit). It may be some time before the same can be said about the UK housing market.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a flat opening, as traders wait for the release of the BBA mortgage loans number. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates, as long as banks are not lending money to credit starved business and consumers the economy is going to struggle. Should the loan number be better then expected look for the retail and manufacturing stocks to get a nice boost.
Crude oil fell from a two-week high on speculation recession in the world's largest economies will curtail demand for fuel and energy. A report later this week will probably show the U.S. economy shrank 5.5 percent in the fourth-quarter, the fastest pace in 26 years. White House officials are working to get President Barack Obama's $825 billion stimulus package approved by mid-February to create or save as many as 4 million jobs.
Oil prices will likely spend most of the week near the 40 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4053.0 (+8.2)
CAC40 2849.70 (+6.20)
DAX30 4173.80 (-7.0)
DOW: 7987 (-77)
SP500 821.60 (-4.63)
Gold: 891.40 (-1.03)
Oil: 45.73 (-0.48)
BetOnMarkets.com
Crude oil fell from a two-week high on speculation recession in the world's largest economies will curtail demand for fuel and energy. A report later this week will probably show the U.S. economy shrank 5.5 percent in the fourth-quarter, the fastest pace in 26 years. White House officials are working to get President Barack Obama's $825 billion stimulus package approved by mid-February to create or save as many as 4 million jobs.
Oil prices will likely spend most of the week near the 40 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4053.0 (+8.2)
CAC40 2849.70 (+6.20)
DAX30 4173.80 (-7.0)
DOW: 7987 (-77)
SP500 821.60 (-4.63)
Gold: 891.40 (-1.03)
Oil: 45.73 (-0.48)
BetOnMarkets.com
Thursday, January 22, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are looking for value after a three day sell off. While there is no UK economic data today, there will be plenty from our neighbors from across the ocean which will more then likely affect the London Index.
The FTSE will probably spend the day in positive territory.
Crude oil gained more then 6% on speculation a bank-rescue plan by the new US president will help boost economic growth and increase fuel demand. Prices could fall on speculation that the U.S. crude-oil inventories rose last week when the inventory numbers are released at 11 a.m. today a day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.
Predicted opens as of 6:00 GMT
FTSE: 4138.3 (+73.3)
CAC40 2976.30 (+75.50)
DAX30 4355.2 (+102.20)
DOW: 8235 (+12)
SP500 842.73 (+2.75)
Gold: 852.45 (+1.10)
Oil: 43.93 (+0.42)
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders are looking for value after a three day sell off. While there is no UK economic data today, there will be plenty from our neighbors from across the ocean which will more then likely affect the London Index.
The FTSE will probably spend the day in positive territory.
Crude oil gained more then 6% on speculation a bank-rescue plan by the new US president will help boost economic growth and increase fuel demand. Prices could fall on speculation that the U.S. crude-oil inventories rose last week when the inventory numbers are released at 11 a.m. today a day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.
Predicted opens as of 6:00 GMT
FTSE: 4138.3 (+73.3)
CAC40 2976.30 (+75.50)
DAX30 4355.2 (+102.20)
DOW: 8235 (+12)
SP500 842.73 (+2.75)
Gold: 852.45 (+1.10)
Oil: 43.93 (+0.42)
BetOnMarkets.com
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Investors aren’t exactly leaping with abandon into banking shares today, but at least they are managing to bounce off their lows set in early morning trading. The finger of blame for the current collapse in banking shares is starting to point at the short sellers once again. John McFall, chairman of the Treasury committed wrote to the head of the FSA asking them to investigate anecdotal evidence that some hedge funds have been shorting stocks.
It is almost inevitable that the short sellers get the blame, they are after all a convenient target. However, it should be recognised that conventional investors selling their holdings in droves can have a greater effect on a share price. After nationalisation of railtrack and Northern Rock, investors could be forgiven for taking their cash and running at the faintest whiff of nationalisation for Barclays, RBS or Lloyds. While the short sellers may be playing a part, it is record losses, ongoing rumours and unquantifiable risks that rattle share prices the most.
With this regard, news that Obama’s team is getting down to business on the economic recovery plan has helped markets stabilise somewhat today.
BetOnMarkets.com
It is almost inevitable that the short sellers get the blame, they are after all a convenient target. However, it should be recognised that conventional investors selling their holdings in droves can have a greater effect on a share price. After nationalisation of railtrack and Northern Rock, investors could be forgiven for taking their cash and running at the faintest whiff of nationalisation for Barclays, RBS or Lloyds. While the short sellers may be playing a part, it is record losses, ongoing rumours and unquantifiable risks that rattle share prices the most.
With this regard, news that Obama’s team is getting down to business on the economic recovery plan has helped markets stabilise somewhat today.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are preparing for the release of the UK Consumer Price Index. Everyone is hoping that the inflation index will show that the average consumer is now getting more bang for their buck, analysts are expecting a drop of 0.9%. Should the number come out better then expected, the FTSE should get a nice boost.
Oil prices fell yesterday as slowing world demand, reduced tension in the Middle East and settlement of Russia's gas dispute with Ukraine has reduced some risk of uncertainty from the market. Some analysts are talking about oil jumping back into the 65 dollars per barrel level later this year, mainly on reduced output by OPEC and other producing countries. In the mean time, oil is probably going to dip into the 38 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4096.7 (-12.80)
CAC40 2979.70 (-7.80)
DAX30 423.60 (-14.70)
DOW: 8191.00 (-38)
SP500 840.23 (-2.50)
Gold: 830.78 (-6.90)
Oil: 40.52 (-0.31)
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, as traders are preparing for the release of the UK Consumer Price Index. Everyone is hoping that the inflation index will show that the average consumer is now getting more bang for their buck, analysts are expecting a drop of 0.9%. Should the number come out better then expected, the FTSE should get a nice boost.
Oil prices fell yesterday as slowing world demand, reduced tension in the Middle East and settlement of Russia's gas dispute with Ukraine has reduced some risk of uncertainty from the market. Some analysts are talking about oil jumping back into the 65 dollars per barrel level later this year, mainly on reduced output by OPEC and other producing countries. In the mean time, oil is probably going to dip into the 38 dollars per barrel level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4096.7 (-12.80)
CAC40 2979.70 (-7.80)
DAX30 423.60 (-14.70)
DOW: 8191.00 (-38)
SP500 840.23 (-2.50)
Gold: 830.78 (-6.90)
Oil: 40.52 (-0.31)
BetOnMarkets.com
Monday, January 19, 2009
BetOnMarkets - Economic calendar for week 19th - 23rd January 2009
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT
Monday January 19th:
US - ALL - Holiday - Martin Luther King Day.
UK - 00:01- Rightmove HPI M/M.
EU - 11:50 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
Tuesday January 20th:
UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
UK - 20:20 - BOE Gov King Speaks.
Wednesday January 21st:
GE - 07:00 - PPI M/M.
EU - 09:30 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
UK - 09:30 - Claimant Count Change.
UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK - 09:30 - Average Earnings Index Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
UK - 09:30 - Unemployment Rate.
UK - 09:45 - MPC Member Tucker Speaks.
US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
Thursday January 22nd:
FR - 07:45 - Consumer Spending M/M.
EU - 09:00 - ECB Monhtly Bulletin.
EU - 10:00 - Industrial New Orders M/M.
UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 15:00 - HPI M/M..
US - 16:00 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Friday January 23rd:
FR -08:00- Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Index of Services Q/Q.
EU - 14:00 - Belgium NBB Business Climate.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
After taking some time off between Christmas and New Year, the credit crunch was well and truly back in action last week. Fears over further banking problems and sovereign debt downgrades for the likes of Ireland and Greece surfaced last month, but until now, these fears have merely been simmering in the background. Last week, the heat was once again turned up, and major fault lines are once again running through the global economy.
According to Bespoke Investments, the S&P 500 suffered its worst 9 day start to the year ever. The omens aren't great with the rest of the year returning -0.74% when the market gets off to such a stuttering start.
US (un)employment and banking problems once again dominated the headlines. Citi group announced it will split in two after announcing an $8.29 billion loss. At the same time, Bank of America posted its first loss in 17 years while receiving a $138 billion bailout.
Economists talk about the prospects of a V, U or L shaped recovery for the worlds various economies, reflecting the expected speed of any return to growth. The prospect of the US or UK following a Japanese style "lost" decade or L shaped recovery would have been laughed at just a couple of years ago, but the world is a very different place today. Economists have made various predictions that the recovery will begin in the fourth quarter of 2009, or first quarter of 2010, but perhaps what is scaring people the most is the growing realisation that nobody knows what is going to happen. Arguably, the banks still haven" confessed all their subprime sins and until they do, rumours will continue to spread concerning capital requirements. As they are at the epicentre of the crisis, this uncertainty could continue to shake markets for a good part of 2009. The global recovery may turn out to be worse than most people expect, it may turn out to be better, but nothing makes an investor reach for the sell button more than the unknown.
It was never going to be a good week for the FTSE when its two main sectors; finance and energy led the selling. Global banking giant HSBC hit the headlines after a Morgan Stanley note warned that it might have to raise $30 bn and cut its dividend in half. Deutsche Bank added to the misery by announcing a $6.33 bn loss in the last quarter. They were forced to deny rumours that this was down to a rogue trader. Considering the size of the loss, one has to wonder whether it is worse that such a loss was generated through authorised channels.
The biggest market mover at the start of the week was Bernanke's speech, in which he outlined the need for further capital injections and guarantees for banks. Considering this came in the same week as BoA's bailout, one can only assume that he was right on the money. The notion of UK banks requiring further capital injections was highlighted recently by The Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean. Most UK financials have now reversed all of last week's gains, as traders speculate that this capital injection is moving closer to reality, along with the creation of a so called bad bank' that would soak up toxic assets. Many analysts are now in agreement that something needs to be done, and although the treasury continues to deny such an act is on the cards, it may be a question of when, not if.
Last week it was announced that Apple talisman Steve Jobs would be taking a medical leave of absence. The announcement rattled the share price, but it did not collapse as many believe it could have done. The share price held above the $80 level last week, and there is a chance that it could continue to hold above this level if investors buy the story that there is more to Apple than Steve Jobs.
A No Touch trade predicting that Apple won't touch $77 over the next 30 days could return 126% of profit at BetOnMarkets.com.
BetOnMarkets.com
Monday January 19th:
US - ALL - Holiday - Martin Luther King Day.
UK - 00:01- Rightmove HPI M/M.
EU - 11:50 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
Tuesday January 20th:
UK - 09:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - Core CPI Y/Y.
UK - 09:30 - RPI Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU - 10:00 - ZEW Economic Sentiment.
UK - 20:20 - BOE Gov King Speaks.
Wednesday January 21st:
GE - 07:00 - PPI M/M.
EU - 09:30 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.
UK - 09:30 - Claimant Count Change.
UK - 09:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK - 09:30 - Average Earnings Index Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Public Sector Net Borrowing.
UK - 09:30 - Unemployment Rate.
UK - 09:45 - MPC Member Tucker Speaks.
US - 18:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index.
Thursday January 22nd:
FR - 07:45 - Consumer Spending M/M.
EU - 09:00 - ECB Monhtly Bulletin.
EU - 10:00 - Industrial New Orders M/M.
UK - 11:00 - CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US - 13:30 - Building Permits.
US - 13:30 - Housing Starts.
US - 13:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 15:00 - HPI M/M..
US - 16:00 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Friday January 23rd:
FR -08:00- Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR - 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE - 08:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK - 09:30 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
UK - 09:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK - 09:30 - Index of Services Q/Q.
EU - 14:00 - Belgium NBB Business Climate.
US - 15:30 - Natural Gas Storage.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
After taking some time off between Christmas and New Year, the credit crunch was well and truly back in action last week. Fears over further banking problems and sovereign debt downgrades for the likes of Ireland and Greece surfaced last month, but until now, these fears have merely been simmering in the background. Last week, the heat was once again turned up, and major fault lines are once again running through the global economy.
According to Bespoke Investments, the S&P 500 suffered its worst 9 day start to the year ever. The omens aren't great with the rest of the year returning -0.74% when the market gets off to such a stuttering start.
US (un)employment and banking problems once again dominated the headlines. Citi group announced it will split in two after announcing an $8.29 billion loss. At the same time, Bank of America posted its first loss in 17 years while receiving a $138 billion bailout.
Economists talk about the prospects of a V, U or L shaped recovery for the worlds various economies, reflecting the expected speed of any return to growth. The prospect of the US or UK following a Japanese style "lost" decade or L shaped recovery would have been laughed at just a couple of years ago, but the world is a very different place today. Economists have made various predictions that the recovery will begin in the fourth quarter of 2009, or first quarter of 2010, but perhaps what is scaring people the most is the growing realisation that nobody knows what is going to happen. Arguably, the banks still haven" confessed all their subprime sins and until they do, rumours will continue to spread concerning capital requirements. As they are at the epicentre of the crisis, this uncertainty could continue to shake markets for a good part of 2009. The global recovery may turn out to be worse than most people expect, it may turn out to be better, but nothing makes an investor reach for the sell button more than the unknown.
It was never going to be a good week for the FTSE when its two main sectors; finance and energy led the selling. Global banking giant HSBC hit the headlines after a Morgan Stanley note warned that it might have to raise $30 bn and cut its dividend in half. Deutsche Bank added to the misery by announcing a $6.33 bn loss in the last quarter. They were forced to deny rumours that this was down to a rogue trader. Considering the size of the loss, one has to wonder whether it is worse that such a loss was generated through authorised channels.
The biggest market mover at the start of the week was Bernanke's speech, in which he outlined the need for further capital injections and guarantees for banks. Considering this came in the same week as BoA's bailout, one can only assume that he was right on the money. The notion of UK banks requiring further capital injections was highlighted recently by The Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean. Most UK financials have now reversed all of last week's gains, as traders speculate that this capital injection is moving closer to reality, along with the creation of a so called bad bank' that would soak up toxic assets. Many analysts are now in agreement that something needs to be done, and although the treasury continues to deny such an act is on the cards, it may be a question of when, not if.
Last week it was announced that Apple talisman Steve Jobs would be taking a medical leave of absence. The announcement rattled the share price, but it did not collapse as many believe it could have done. The share price held above the $80 level last week, and there is a chance that it could continue to hold above this level if investors buy the story that there is more to Apple than Steve Jobs.
A No Touch trade predicting that Apple won't touch $77 over the next 30 days could return 126% of profit at BetOnMarkets.com.
BetOnMarkets.com
Sunday, January 18, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders seem enthusiastic about economy after better then expected Rightmove house prices. Some traders are excited about Tuesdays CPI numbers, as rumors indicate that the data will be better then expected. It is Martin Luther King Day in US; as a result all banks and exchanges are closed. The FTSE will probably start the week in positive territory.
Crude oil fell after the latest forecast showed that faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel demand for a second year. As a result OPEC will probably introduce another round of production cuts at the March 15th meeting. The goal for the organization is to keep oil above the 60 dollar per barrel level. Oil will most likely stay under the 42 dollar level until the next inventory announcement on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4206.1 (+63.6)
CAC40 3040.70 (+26.90)
DAX30 4398.2 (+29.9)
DOW: 8361 (+94)
SP500 859.23 (+7.00)
Gold: 837.35 (-4.45)
Oil: 42.16 (-0.27)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, as traders seem enthusiastic about economy after better then expected Rightmove house prices. Some traders are excited about Tuesdays CPI numbers, as rumors indicate that the data will be better then expected. It is Martin Luther King Day in US; as a result all banks and exchanges are closed. The FTSE will probably start the week in positive territory.
Crude oil fell after the latest forecast showed that faltering global economic growth will drive down fuel demand for a second year. As a result OPEC will probably introduce another round of production cuts at the March 15th meeting. The goal for the organization is to keep oil above the 60 dollar per barrel level. Oil will most likely stay under the 42 dollar level until the next inventory announcement on Thursday this week due to the Monday holiday.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4206.1 (+63.6)
CAC40 3040.70 (+26.90)
DAX30 4398.2 (+29.9)
DOW: 8361 (+94)
SP500 859.23 (+7.00)
Gold: 837.35 (-4.45)
Oil: 42.16 (-0.27)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
Friday, January 16, 2009
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, continuing a rally that started in this morning in Asia. While there is no UK economic news today, there will be plenty from the North American side of the ocean to keep things interesting. We will get a glimpse at the US inflation numbers with the release of the CPI report at 13.30GMT and consumer confidence at 15.00 GMT. The FTSE will more then likely close out the week on a positive note.
Oil is set for the biggest weekly decline in a month, after OPEC announced that demand will drop this year amid a global recession. The organization cut its global demand estimate by another 20,000 barrels per day. The March futures contract is trading at 43.21 per barrel, there is a chance that oil will end the day closer to the 40 dollar level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4183 (+71.2)
CAC40 3047.60 (+52.30)
DAX30 4413.7 (+89.2)
DOW: 8259 (+46)
SP500 847.73 (+4.50)
Gold: 819.75 (+1.45)
Oil: 43.19 (+7.78)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening, continuing a rally that started in this morning in Asia. While there is no UK economic news today, there will be plenty from the North American side of the ocean to keep things interesting. We will get a glimpse at the US inflation numbers with the release of the CPI report at 13.30GMT and consumer confidence at 15.00 GMT. The FTSE will more then likely close out the week on a positive note.
Oil is set for the biggest weekly decline in a month, after OPEC announced that demand will drop this year amid a global recession. The organization cut its global demand estimate by another 20,000 barrels per day. The March futures contract is trading at 43.21 per barrel, there is a chance that oil will end the day closer to the 40 dollar level.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4183 (+71.2)
CAC40 3047.60 (+52.30)
DAX30 4413.7 (+89.2)
DOW: 8259 (+46)
SP500 847.73 (+4.50)
Gold: 819.75 (+1.45)
Oil: 43.19 (+7.78)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
Thursday, January 15, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
It’s unfortunately a case of more of the same today as markets continue to reverse the rally from the lows from November. US jobless claims and banking problems once again dominate the headlines. Economists talk about the prospects of a V, U or L shaped recovery for the worlds various economies, reflecting the expected speed of any return to growth. The prospect of the US or UK following a Japanese style ‘lost’ decade or L shaped recovery would have been laughed at just a couple of years ago, but the world is a very different place today. Economists have made various predictions that the recovery will begin in the fourth quarter 2009/ first quarter 2010 etc, but perhaps what is scaring people the most is the growing realisation that nobody knows what is going to happen. Arguably, the banks still haven’t confessed all their sub prime sins and until they do, rumours will continues spread concerning capital requirements. As they are at the epicentre of the crisis, this uncertainty could continue to shake markets for a good part of 2009. The global recovery may turn out to be worse than most people expect, it may turn out to be better, but nothing makes an investor reach for the sell button more than the unknown.
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets.com
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders have no UK economic data to help them move the market. In Europe on the other hand, traders will be all ears when the ECB announces its latest interest rate decision. Analysts are expecting a 50 basis point cut; however it would not surprise me if the ECB cut an extra 25 basis points to help stimulate the stagnant economy. An interest rate cut usually benefits the equity markets so look for a nice jump in the European markets today.
Oil tumbled yesterday after a government report showed slowing demand sent U.S. stockpiles soaring to a 16-month high. Fuel demand fell 6 percent, the largest one-week decline in almost five years, as the Federal Reserve reported the U.S. economy weakened further in the past month. Oil prices should stabilize around the 35 dollars per barrel level for the near term.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4156.3 (-19.2)
CAC40 3030.50 (-18.80)
DAX30 4407.2 (-18.3)
DOW: 8154 (-43)
SP500 834.98 (-7.50)
Gold: 809.15 (-3.20)
Oil: 36.54 (-0.70)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 21 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a slightly lower opening, as traders have no UK economic data to help them move the market. In Europe on the other hand, traders will be all ears when the ECB announces its latest interest rate decision. Analysts are expecting a 50 basis point cut; however it would not surprise me if the ECB cut an extra 25 basis points to help stimulate the stagnant economy. An interest rate cut usually benefits the equity markets so look for a nice jump in the European markets today.
Oil tumbled yesterday after a government report showed slowing demand sent U.S. stockpiles soaring to a 16-month high. Fuel demand fell 6 percent, the largest one-week decline in almost five years, as the Federal Reserve reported the U.S. economy weakened further in the past month. Oil prices should stabilize around the 35 dollars per barrel level for the near term.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4156.3 (-19.2)
CAC40 3030.50 (-18.80)
DAX30 4407.2 (-18.3)
DOW: 8154 (-43)
SP500 834.98 (-7.50)
Gold: 809.15 (-3.20)
Oil: 36.54 (-0.70)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 21 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Please find below the Afternoon Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
European markets are off their lows, though most blue chip companies are still flashing red on the day. BP is trading a touch higher with oil recovering some of yesterday’s losses. Tesco is one of the leading lights in the FTSE after impressing with its growth in non food items.
The biggest market mover today has been Bernanke’s speech in which he outlined the need for further capital injections and guarantees for banks. So far reaction from US financials has been muted, largely because such action has been rumoured to be on the cards for some time. There is also a lack of clarity over what exactly Obama intends to do when he takes office next week. The notion of UK banks requiring further capital injections was highlighted recently by Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean. Most UK financials have now reversed all of yesterday’s gains as traders speculate that this capital injection is moving closer to reality along with the creation of a so called ‘bad bank’ that would soak up toxic assets. Many analysts are now in agreement that something needs to be done and although the treasury continues to deny such an act is on the cards, it may be a question of when, not if.
betonmarkets.com
European markets are off their lows, though most blue chip companies are still flashing red on the day. BP is trading a touch higher with oil recovering some of yesterday’s losses. Tesco is one of the leading lights in the FTSE after impressing with its growth in non food items.
The biggest market mover today has been Bernanke’s speech in which he outlined the need for further capital injections and guarantees for banks. So far reaction from US financials has been muted, largely because such action has been rumoured to be on the cards for some time. There is also a lack of clarity over what exactly Obama intends to do when he takes office next week. The notion of UK banks requiring further capital injections was highlighted recently by Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean. Most UK financials have now reversed all of yesterday’s gains as traders speculate that this capital injection is moving closer to reality along with the creation of a so called ‘bad bank’ that would soak up toxic assets. Many analysts are now in agreement that something needs to be done and although the treasury continues to deny such an act is on the cards, it may be a question of when, not if.
betonmarkets.com
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
Please find below the Morning Report from David Evans, market analyst at BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders wait for the release of the trade balance numbers. Because the UK economy is trade driven, Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates. The FTSE will be highly sensitive to the numbers especially the retail sector.
Crude oil fell for a sixth day in New York, extending yesterday's 7.9 percent slump on speculation oil inventories last week increased as demand declined. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world's biggest state oil company, sent notices to refiners in Asia on Jan. 9 that it would lower crude supplies to the region by about 10 percent in February. This is another attempt to help slow down the slide of oil prices by cutting supplies.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4398.2 (-31.3)
CAC40 3228.70 (-14.30)
DAX30 4704.1 (-16.2)
DOW: 8522 (+56)
SP500 875.48 (+4.00)
Gold: 825.60 (+6.25)
Oil: 37.06 (-0.50)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders wait for the release of the trade balance numbers. Because the UK economy is trade driven, Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates. The FTSE will be highly sensitive to the numbers especially the retail sector.
Crude oil fell for a sixth day in New York, extending yesterday's 7.9 percent slump on speculation oil inventories last week increased as demand declined. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., the world's biggest state oil company, sent notices to refiners in Asia on Jan. 9 that it would lower crude supplies to the region by about 10 percent in February. This is another attempt to help slow down the slide of oil prices by cutting supplies.
Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4398.2 (-31.3)
CAC40 3228.70 (-14.30)
DAX30 4704.1 (-16.2)
DOW: 8522 (+56)
SP500 875.48 (+4.00)
Gold: 825.60 (+6.25)
Oil: 37.06 (-0.50)
BetOnMarkets.com is the worlds leading fixed odds financial trading website. Since inception in 2000 it has processed over 15 million trades on financial indices, UK and US equities, gold and currencies. Over 130,000 clients have the ability to place trades from GBP1 to GBP25,000.
BetOnMarkets.com
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Equities have been stuck in reverse for most of the day with US ADP
employment figures causing declines to accelerate. Non Farm employment
fell by 693,000 from November to December, which way ahead of consensus
estimates. Adding to the gloom, major US blue chip companies, Intel and
Time Warner both posted earnings that fell below analysts estimates. In
the UK, Bellwether stock Marks and Spencer is marginally up on the day
after announcing figures that were largely in line with estimates. Much
of today's move started yesterday on the back of better than expected
earnings from Next and Debenhams.
On the currency markets, it is a rare strong day for the pound. Sterling
has retraced further away from parity against the Euro and is pushing
above the $1.5000 level against the US dollar. Analysts are
repositioning themselves as sentiment changes regarding the expected
severity of tomorrow's bank of England rate cut tomorrow. Interbank
lending has improved in the last month or so, which may mean the MPC
will cut by less than the 75 base points that many were expecting.
BetOnMarkets.com
employment figures causing declines to accelerate. Non Farm employment
fell by 693,000 from November to December, which way ahead of consensus
estimates. Adding to the gloom, major US blue chip companies, Intel and
Time Warner both posted earnings that fell below analysts estimates. In
the UK, Bellwether stock Marks and Spencer is marginally up on the day
after announcing figures that were largely in line with estimates. Much
of today's move started yesterday on the back of better than expected
earnings from Next and Debenhams.
On the currency markets, it is a rare strong day for the pound. Sterling
has retraced further away from parity against the Euro and is pushing
above the $1.5000 level against the US dollar. Analysts are
repositioning themselves as sentiment changes regarding the expected
severity of tomorrow's bank of England rate cut tomorrow. Interbank
lending has improved in the last month or so, which may mean the MPC
will cut by less than the 75 base points that many were expecting.
BetOnMarkets.com
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Equities have rallied well today, but are now pulling back from the
highs of the day. There is an increasing appetite for risk taking as
evidence by the pullback in high yield spreads. Spreads are still
elevated, but they are at least moving in the right direction. Despite
worse than expected US pending home re-sales, sentiment surrounding the
expected Obama stimulus package continues to help push markets higher.
The FTSE has been in rally mode ever since major retailers, Next and
Debenhams released their latest results. Their figures were generally
inline with expectations, but this has been enough to spark a rally
across the UK retailing sector with Marks and Spencers also up ahead of
its earnings announcement tomorrow. While today's Christmas trading
numbers have been described as robust, Next in particular has warned
that 2009 will be a very difficult year. There is a very real
possibility that 2009 earnings will fall significantly below consensus
estimates. Companies such as Marks and Spencer held of making
redundancies until the new year and 2009 could see many other companies
following suit. It appears that shoppers didn't entirely ditch their
spending habit last year, but with the jobs market set to worsen in
2009, the Christmas of 2008 could be seen as the shoppers' last hurrah
for a good few years.
BetOnMarkets.com
highs of the day. There is an increasing appetite for risk taking as
evidence by the pullback in high yield spreads. Spreads are still
elevated, but they are at least moving in the right direction. Despite
worse than expected US pending home re-sales, sentiment surrounding the
expected Obama stimulus package continues to help push markets higher.
The FTSE has been in rally mode ever since major retailers, Next and
Debenhams released their latest results. Their figures were generally
inline with expectations, but this has been enough to spark a rally
across the UK retailing sector with Marks and Spencers also up ahead of
its earnings announcement tomorrow. While today's Christmas trading
numbers have been described as robust, Next in particular has warned
that 2009 will be a very difficult year. There is a very real
possibility that 2009 earnings will fall significantly below consensus
estimates. Companies such as Marks and Spencer held of making
redundancies until the new year and 2009 could see many other companies
following suit. It appears that shoppers didn't entirely ditch their
spending habit last year, but with the jobs market set to worsen in
2009, the Christmas of 2008 could be seen as the shoppers' last hurrah
for a good few years.
BetOnMarkets.com
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