The FTSE is currently indicates a lower open as traders await the release economic data regarding the state of the UK banking sector. Economists are wondering how well this sector is doing, especially the mortgage industry. An increase in approved loans could signal that the banking industry is once again ready to lend money to the public.
Oil should be front and center as Hurricane Gustav makes landfall around the time London closes for the day. There are rumors that Hurricane Gustav is going to hit the oil producing area of the Gulf of Mexico. This could result in the price of oil retesting the record price set earlier this year.
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Sunday, August 31, 2008
Friday, August 29, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a flat open, as there is no economic data to help the traders determine where the FTSE is headed next. Today's trading could be influenced by the data that is released in Europe and US, especially the European consumer confidence report. Look for a quiet day, as most traders are going to be taking off early to enjoy the last weekend of summer.
Oil traders felt like they just took a rollercoaster ride yesterday. Oil finished down almost 3 dollars per barrel and at one point was trading below the 115 dollar mark. We suggest for traders to stay out of the oil market until after the weekend, as hurricane Gustav is unpredictable.
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Oil traders felt like they just took a rollercoaster ride yesterday. Oil finished down almost 3 dollars per barrel and at one point was trading below the 115 dollar mark. We suggest for traders to stay out of the oil market until after the weekend, as hurricane Gustav is unpredictable.
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Wednesday, August 27, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE currently indicates a flat open, as yet again traders will be looking towards the US economy for guidance of the equity market. Today the US department of commerce will be releasing the US 2nd quarter GDP numbers. Economists are expecting a growth of 1%. If the numbers stay positive, this will be a clear indication that the economy is on the verge of recovery.
Oil has been benefiting from the hurricane season. As the black gold has gained 3 dollars in the last week since the news that hurricane Gustav has forced New Orleans to start making evacuation plans. If the GDP number comes out better then expected, look for the price of oil to spike north of 120 dollars per barrel.
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Oil has been benefiting from the hurricane season. As the black gold has gained 3 dollars in the last week since the news that hurricane Gustav has forced New Orleans to start making evacuation plans. If the GDP number comes out better then expected, look for the price of oil to spike north of 120 dollars per barrel.
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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Market are on hurricane watch as tropical storm Gustav heads for Louisiana. Oil is currently approaching $117 and energy stocks are providing leadership. Fortunately, a better than expected durable goods report and dovish commentary by the FOMC member, Lockhart have helped offset the hurricane concerns and markets are currently showing modest gains. In the UK, despite the dramatic headlines, house builder Taylor Wimpey is down only slightly on yesterday’s close. The huge write down on the value of its land bank was largely expected for once, the write down wasn’t worse than expected. Volume is still light and many traders are keeping their powder dry as they await the full impact of the Storm approaching the South East US coastline.
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Tuesday, August 26, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
European markets opened on the back foot, this morning due to the sustained sell off on Wall Street last night. The FTSE has struggled to catch up after the Bank Holiday day off and judging by the volume of today’s trading activity, many traders may have taken the chance for an extended holiday.
US markets are mildly positive after better than expected new home sales data. The S&P Case-Schiller house price index fell less than expected for the second quarter, but indicates that US house prices are still down 15.9% year on year. On a more positive note, housing futures based on the Case-Schiller index bottomed at the end of June and have been rising since. Expectations are for lower levels still, but the these levels are now thought to be better than those predicted a few months ago. However, it is too early to say for sure that this heralds the start of the start of the much vaunted turnaround in US house prices. Interest-rate futures are currently implying that banks are again becoming hesitant to lend to each other on fears that credit losses will increase as the feared global recession kicks in. Increased lending rates will hardly be manna from heaven for home owners on either side of the Atlantic.
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US markets are mildly positive after better than expected new home sales data. The S&P Case-Schiller house price index fell less than expected for the second quarter, but indicates that US house prices are still down 15.9% year on year. On a more positive note, housing futures based on the Case-Schiller index bottomed at the end of June and have been rising since. Expectations are for lower levels still, but the these levels are now thought to be better than those predicted a few months ago. However, it is too early to say for sure that this heralds the start of the start of the much vaunted turnaround in US house prices. Interest-rate futures are currently implying that banks are again becoming hesitant to lend to each other on fears that credit losses will increase as the feared global recession kicks in. Increased lending rates will hardly be manna from heaven for home owners on either side of the Atlantic.
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Thursday, August 21, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report
Markets are on edge with both bulls and bears frustrated and unwilling to take on big positions. There are two big unknowns, the first is the continuing political crisis between Russia and NATO countries. The focus has now shifted from Georgia to the proposed missile defence battery to be located in Poland. The longer this goes on without constructive dialogue from either party, the more nervous investors become. As testament to investors growing unease, oil prices have finally started to move higher, a significant development considering the recent ambivalence seen in crude prices. Russia is vying with Saudia Arabia to become the worlds top oil producer.
Secondly, the specifics of the expected US government bailout of the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still unknown. With billions, potentially trillions at stake for the US government and US tax payers, equity and bond traders alike are wary of taking on large positions. Financials are therefore underperforming again today, while gold and oil bounce back from their recent dips.
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Secondly, the specifics of the expected US government bailout of the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are still unknown. With billions, potentially trillions at stake for the US government and US tax payers, equity and bond traders alike are wary of taking on large positions. Financials are therefore underperforming again today, while gold and oil bounce back from their recent dips.
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Wednesday, August 20, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Report
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening as traders await the release of the UK retail sales numbers. While economists are expecting a contraction of 0.2%, traders are hedging in case the numbers come out worse then expected. Should this happen, the FTSE could open 1% lower.
Gold is in recovery mode as the strength of the US dollar wanes. Gold is now trading above the 820 dollar per ounce mark, and is poised to go higher. Oil had a very interesting day; after bearish inventory data, which saw crude oil fall below the 114 dollar mark, the black gold recovered and coupled with the weakness of the US equities market, finished the day above the 116 dollar per barrel mark. We expect oil to follow the US dollar, if the dollar weakens then look for oil to test 120 dollar level.
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Gold is in recovery mode as the strength of the US dollar wanes. Gold is now trading above the 820 dollar per ounce mark, and is poised to go higher. Oil had a very interesting day; after bearish inventory data, which saw crude oil fall below the 114 dollar mark, the black gold recovered and coupled with the weakness of the US equities market, finished the day above the 116 dollar per barrel mark. We expect oil to follow the US dollar, if the dollar weakens then look for oil to test 120 dollar level.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher open as traders are anticipating that the economic news from its main trading partner, European Union, comes out better then expected. Today around the same time the FTSE opens for trade, the European Union will be releasing its GDP results for the 2nd quarter. Analysts are excepting for a contraction of 0.2%, however we have heard rumours that there is a chance that the number will come out much higher. Should this happen we could see the FTSE close up more then 100 points
Gold is benefiting from bottom buying. Some traders are hoping that the recent US dollar strength is over done and that gold is poised for a jump back up to 900 dollars per ounce.
Oil benefited yesterday from the bullish inventory numbers, however the overall down trend should resume today and we could retest the 114 dollar level.
Gold is benefiting from bottom buying. Some traders are hoping that the recent US dollar strength is over done and that gold is poised for a jump back up to 900 dollars per ounce.
Oil benefited yesterday from the bullish inventory numbers, however the overall down trend should resume today and we could retest the 114 dollar level.
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Update
The FTSE is down around 1%, but the real loser today is UK PLC. The pound is crashing as various factors come to a head. Up until July, the US Dollar was the currency the world loved to hate, now it’s sterling’s turn to be punished. Today’s Bank Of England inflation report was more dovish than expected, opening the doors to possible interest rate cuts before the year is out. This coupled with a housing market that has fallen through the roof has pushed Sterling down 1.11% against the Euro, 1.3% against the Dollar and 1.84% against the Yen today alone.
Stocks are not immune from the general stampede out UK securities. The financial sector is once again under pressure and without the FTSE’s other major sector firing on all cylinders (oil), the index is showing weakness where it counts. It has recently been reported that global bank’s losses & writedowns from the credit crunch have exceeded the $500bn marker. To add to the gloom, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini has recently estimated that this figure could double before the crisis is over.
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Stocks are not immune from the general stampede out UK securities. The financial sector is once again under pressure and without the FTSE’s other major sector firing on all cylinders (oil), the index is showing weakness where it counts. It has recently been reported that global bank’s losses & writedowns from the credit crunch have exceeded the $500bn marker. To add to the gloom, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini has recently estimated that this figure could double before the crisis is over.
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BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a weaker open as traders are waiting for the release of the UK employment numbers. Some analysts are expecting for an increase in the unemployment rate, which will give more reason for the BOE to cut the interest rate at the next meeting. We feel that the unemployment rate will be even worse then expected, and if it happens look for the FTSE to open almost 1% weaker.
Oil broke through the 115 dollar support level, on speculation that a U.S. government report today will show refiners cut output, signalling a drop in demand in the world's largest energy consumer, a build-up in the US inventory could push oil below 110 dollars per barrel. Gold is trading just above the 800 dollar level, and it seems like its going to go lower, as the US dollar is picking up steam against the other currencies. We will not be surprised if gold drops below 800 based on positive US dollar sentiment.
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Oil broke through the 115 dollar support level, on speculation that a U.S. government report today will show refiners cut output, signalling a drop in demand in the world's largest energy consumer, a build-up in the US inventory could push oil below 110 dollars per barrel. Gold is trading just above the 800 dollar level, and it seems like its going to go lower, as the US dollar is picking up steam against the other currencies. We will not be surprised if gold drops below 800 based on positive US dollar sentiment.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Update
With the conflict in Georgia seemingly reaching an impasse, financial markets have reacted with the same general disinterest they showed at the start of the conflict. Although the pipeline that crosses Georgia only accounts for around 1% global energy flow, the lack of buying interest in oil is telling. Gold too, is normally seen as a safe haven in times of conflict, but the precious metal is now just $20 or so from being in official bear market territory. The lack of interest in the former 'evil twins of inflation' speaks volumes about the shift in sentiment and attention since financial markets bottomed and oil peaked in July. Before this point, oil was rallying on rumours of supply shortages or conflicts, but mainly pushing higher on pure momentum alone. This momentum has obviously stalled and buyers, hedge funds especially no longer see the commodity as a one way bet. Still, as it ticks closer down to $100 a barrel, it would be surprising if there was
not a rally of sorts from these levels. There is growing chatter that oil will see a bounce sooner rather than later, especially if it dips to the psychologically important $100 a barrel level.
Financial stocks are mixed in the UK, but energy stocks are pushing higher even without the support of rallying crude prices. The Pound is staking a battering from the Dollar as the US trade deficit unexpectedly shrinks. Although the US housing crisis is showing little sign of abating, the UK housing market continues to lurch from bad headline to dire warning. Sterling is being punished today as a result amid speculation that the Bank of England may not be able to hold its inflation fighting line for as long as it wants.
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not a rally of sorts from these levels. There is growing chatter that oil will see a bounce sooner rather than later, especially if it dips to the psychologically important $100 a barrel level.
Financial stocks are mixed in the UK, but energy stocks are pushing higher even without the support of rallying crude prices. The Pound is staking a battering from the Dollar as the US trade deficit unexpectedly shrinks. Although the US housing crisis is showing little sign of abating, the UK housing market continues to lurch from bad headline to dire warning. Sterling is being punished today as a result amid speculation that the Bank of England may not be able to hold its inflation fighting line for as long as it wants.
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BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a week open, are awaiting the very important UK Consumer Price Index. The Bank of England has been struggling for the last few months to maintain a balance between controlling inflation, and trying to jump start a sputtering economy. Todays data will show if the BOEs job will become easier or not. A weak CPI number will result in a very strong open for the FTSE.
Renewed worries about a slowing down economy across the world, has pushed oil prices to a 14 week low. While escalating tension in Russia , traders are worried that a slowdown will lower demand will continue to be the overall theme. We will be looking forward to Wednesdays Department of Energy inventory supplies, which tends to move the market. Gold is nearing 800 dollars for the first time this year, as the strength of the US dollar has forced all those holding gold as a hedge to sell out of their positions, While we feel this is overdone, the recover of the US dollar has began.
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Renewed worries about a slowing down economy across the world, has pushed oil prices to a 14 week low. While escalating tension in Russia , traders are worried that a slowdown will lower demand will continue to be the overall theme. We will be looking forward to Wednesdays Department of Energy inventory supplies, which tends to move the market. Gold is nearing 800 dollars for the first time this year, as the strength of the US dollar has forced all those holding gold as a hedge to sell out of their positions, While we feel this is overdone, the recover of the US dollar has began.
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Monday, August 11, 2008
BetOnMarkets Afternoon Update
The FTSE has managed to hold on to most of the morning's gains, which
were largely a factor of the strong close in New York on Friday. A
relatively quiet economic calendar and low summer volume have muted
activity after last week's impressive action. Banking stocks are
performing well in the UK, with Barclays, RBS and Lloyds all putting
further distance between themselves and the July lows. Investors are
impressed that the banking sector has still been able to maintain strong
earnings in the retail sector, despite the ongoing credit problems many
are facing. In the US retail stocks are performing well with online
giant Amazon leading the way.
While the developing conflict is Georgia is grabbing the headlines, so
far both equity and foreign exchange markets remain largely unaffected.
After an early pull back, the Dollar is back to the unchanged mark
against the Euro and Pound while commodities such as oil have barely
moved since the conflict began. While pipelines have been developed
across the Georgia to help connect the energy wealth to the West, they
still only account for around 1% of the global market.
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were largely a factor of the strong close in New York on Friday. A
relatively quiet economic calendar and low summer volume have muted
activity after last week's impressive action. Banking stocks are
performing well in the UK, with Barclays, RBS and Lloyds all putting
further distance between themselves and the July lows. Investors are
impressed that the banking sector has still been able to maintain strong
earnings in the retail sector, despite the ongoing credit problems many
are facing. In the US retail stocks are performing well with online
giant Amazon leading the way.
While the developing conflict is Georgia is grabbing the headlines, so
far both equity and foreign exchange markets remain largely unaffected.
After an early pull back, the Dollar is back to the unchanged mark
against the Euro and Pound while commodities such as oil have barely
moved since the conflict began. While pipelines have been developed
across the Georgia to help connect the energy wealth to the West, they
still only account for around 1% of the global market.
BetOnMarkets
Economic calendar for week 11th - 15th August 2008.
BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 11th - 15th August 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week 11th - 15th August 2008
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.
Monday Aug 11th:
FR - 06:45 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - PPI Input M/M.
UK - 08:30 - PPI Output M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Trade Balance.
UK - 23:01 - BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y.
UK - 23:50 - RICS House Price Balance.
Tuesday August 12th:
FR - 06:45 - CPI M/M.
UK - 08:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - Core PI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - DCLG HPI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - RPI Y/Y.
US - 12:30 - Trade Balance.
US - 14:00 - IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
Wednesday August 13th:
UK - 08:30 - Claimant Count Change.
UK - 08:30 - Average Earnings Index Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - Unemployment Rate.
EU - 09:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - BOE Inflation Report.
US - 12:30 - Core Retail Sales M/M.
US - 12:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
US - 12:30 - Import Price Index M/M.
US - 12:30 - Business Inventories M/M.
US - 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday August 14th:
GE - 06:00 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
GE - 06:00 - Final CPI M/M.
FR - 06:45 - Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q.
FR - 06:45 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
EU - 08:00 - ECB Bulletin.
EU - 09:00 - CPI Y/Y.
EU - 09:00 - Core CPI Y/Y.
EU - 09:00 - Flash GDP Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Core CPI M/M.
US - 12:30 - CPI M/M.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US - 18:30 - FOMC Member Stern Speaks.
Friday August 15th:
US - 12:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US - 13:00 - TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
US - 13:15 - Capacity Utilization Rate.
US - 13:15 - Industrial Production M/M.
US - 13:55 - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US - 13:55 - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
Markets finished last week strongly, with many global indices finally break out the range they had been trading in since July. The Dow Jones Industrial average even managed to register two 300 point rallies in one week.
Interest rate announcements dominated the headlines despite there being no surprises with the decisions to leave rates unchanged. The FOMC created the most excitement, when traders interpreted some of their remarks to mean that the expected rate hikes may take longer to materialise than previously expected. Markets rallied hard on the day as a result. However, as is often the case after an extreme move on a Fed day, markets moved back in the opposite direction the next day.
While equity markets remain in tight trading ranges, major currency pairs experienced some dramatic moves. The EUR/ USD pair finally broke below the 1.53/ 1.60 range that it has been trading within since the Euro’s run up in February. The Euro slumped the most in more than four years against the Dollar, falling to nearly 1.5000. The GBP/ USD also broke below the 1.93 support level significantly for the first time in 2008, as more bad news about the UK economy hit the newswires. While a weak Euro added to the dramatic drop on Friday, the real driver with both these break outs, has been the resurgent Dollar.
Commodities pulled back further last week on speculation that a global slowdown will check demand. Oil closed the week below $120, and Gold continued to fall well below $900, down to $863 on the week. A whole basket of commodities have now fallen back at around 20-40% from their peaks. Oil is close to being down 20% from its peak, natural gas close to registering a 40% drop, Wheat is down 35%, Corn 32%, and rice 30%. Many technical analysts consider a drop from a high of 20% or more officially a ‘bear market’. While a lot of attention has gone on the dramatic fall in equity prices, it is interesting to note that the commodity prices that have led directly to inflationary pressures are also in a bear market. However given the volatility of oil prices in particular, it would not take much for oil to claw back some of its recent losses.
It was a mixed week for financials, down trodden mortgage lender, Freddie Mac announced that it will be slashing its dividend to cover its recent $821 Million loss. UK banks managed to finish the week in positive territory despite a raft of poor earnings announced. There was also further bad news for the UK housing market, with Halifax saying that house prices were down 11% year on year. Prices in the past six months have fallen at an annualized rate of 20%.
Next week brings a raft of top tier UK data, starting with PPI figures on Monday morning, and the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. Wednesday morning brings the claimant count change, and the BOE inflation report. Wednesday also sees the release of important US retail sales figures, followed by US CPI figures on Thursday. Friday brings a mix of middle to and top tier US announcements, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC net long term transactions, and University of Michigan Consumers Sentiment.
With the EUR/ USD and GBP/ USD breaking out of their recent ranges in dramatic fashion on Friday, it could be time for the action to transfer to the EUR/ GBP exchange rate, which has so far remained relatively unmoved and still within the range it has been stuck in for the past few months. A one touch trade predicting that the Euro will continue to fall against the pound and touch 0.7775 in the next 16 days could return 68%.
BetOnMarkets
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 11th - 15th August 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week 11th - 15th August 2008
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.
Monday Aug 11th:
FR - 06:45 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - PPI Input M/M.
UK - 08:30 - PPI Output M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Trade Balance.
UK - 23:01 - BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y.
UK - 23:50 - RICS House Price Balance.
Tuesday August 12th:
FR - 06:45 - CPI M/M.
UK - 08:30 - CPI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - Core PI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - DCLG HPI Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - RPI Y/Y.
US - 12:30 - Trade Balance.
US - 14:00 - IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
Wednesday August 13th:
UK - 08:30 - Claimant Count Change.
UK - 08:30 - Average Earnings Index Y/Y.
UK - 08:30 - Unemployment Rate.
EU - 09:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 09:30 - BOE Inflation Report.
US - 12:30 - Core Retail Sales M/M.
US - 12:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
US - 12:30 - Import Price Index M/M.
US - 12:30 - Business Inventories M/M.
US - 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday August 14th:
GE - 06:00 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
GE - 06:00 - Final CPI M/M.
FR - 06:45 - Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q.
FR - 06:45 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
EU - 08:00 - ECB Bulletin.
EU - 09:00 - CPI Y/Y.
EU - 09:00 - Core CPI Y/Y.
EU - 09:00 - Flash GDP Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Core CPI M/M.
US - 12:30 - CPI M/M.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US - 18:30 - FOMC Member Stern Speaks.
Friday August 15th:
US - 12:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US - 13:00 - TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
US - 13:15 - Capacity Utilization Rate.
US - 13:15 - Industrial Production M/M.
US - 13:55 - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US - 13:55 - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
Markets finished last week strongly, with many global indices finally break out the range they had been trading in since July. The Dow Jones Industrial average even managed to register two 300 point rallies in one week.
Interest rate announcements dominated the headlines despite there being no surprises with the decisions to leave rates unchanged. The FOMC created the most excitement, when traders interpreted some of their remarks to mean that the expected rate hikes may take longer to materialise than previously expected. Markets rallied hard on the day as a result. However, as is often the case after an extreme move on a Fed day, markets moved back in the opposite direction the next day.
While equity markets remain in tight trading ranges, major currency pairs experienced some dramatic moves. The EUR/ USD pair finally broke below the 1.53/ 1.60 range that it has been trading within since the Euro’s run up in February. The Euro slumped the most in more than four years against the Dollar, falling to nearly 1.5000. The GBP/ USD also broke below the 1.93 support level significantly for the first time in 2008, as more bad news about the UK economy hit the newswires. While a weak Euro added to the dramatic drop on Friday, the real driver with both these break outs, has been the resurgent Dollar.
Commodities pulled back further last week on speculation that a global slowdown will check demand. Oil closed the week below $120, and Gold continued to fall well below $900, down to $863 on the week. A whole basket of commodities have now fallen back at around 20-40% from their peaks. Oil is close to being down 20% from its peak, natural gas close to registering a 40% drop, Wheat is down 35%, Corn 32%, and rice 30%. Many technical analysts consider a drop from a high of 20% or more officially a ‘bear market’. While a lot of attention has gone on the dramatic fall in equity prices, it is interesting to note that the commodity prices that have led directly to inflationary pressures are also in a bear market. However given the volatility of oil prices in particular, it would not take much for oil to claw back some of its recent losses.
It was a mixed week for financials, down trodden mortgage lender, Freddie Mac announced that it will be slashing its dividend to cover its recent $821 Million loss. UK banks managed to finish the week in positive territory despite a raft of poor earnings announced. There was also further bad news for the UK housing market, with Halifax saying that house prices were down 11% year on year. Prices in the past six months have fallen at an annualized rate of 20%.
Next week brings a raft of top tier UK data, starting with PPI figures on Monday morning, and the Consumer Price Index on Tuesday. Wednesday morning brings the claimant count change, and the BOE inflation report. Wednesday also sees the release of important US retail sales figures, followed by US CPI figures on Thursday. Friday brings a mix of middle to and top tier US announcements, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, TIC net long term transactions, and University of Michigan Consumers Sentiment.
With the EUR/ USD and GBP/ USD breaking out of their recent ranges in dramatic fashion on Friday, it could be time for the action to transfer to the EUR/ GBP exchange rate, which has so far remained relatively unmoved and still within the range it has been stuck in for the past few months. A one touch trade predicting that the Euro will continue to fall against the pound and touch 0.7775 in the next 16 days could return 68%.
BetOnMarkets
Sunday, August 10, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a stronger open, as traders are awaiting the release of the UK Producer Price Index, which is the measure of inflation incurred by the UK manufacturers. The repeating issue for why the BOE is not cutting the interest rates is inflation, and if todays number comes out weaker then expected, an interest cut becomes a possibility again.
Commodities took it on the chin last week, as the US dollar steamrolled all the major currencies. Oil, which was one of the losers, is being propped up mainly due to the tension between Russia and Georgia. While a ceasefire has been announced, there is risk for further gains if talks fail. Gold is being pushed along the same lines, as US is backing Georgia in the conflict, and some worry that it might be forced into another war.
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Commodities took it on the chin last week, as the US dollar steamrolled all the major currencies. Oil, which was one of the losers, is being propped up mainly due to the tension between Russia and Georgia. While a ceasefire has been announced, there is risk for further gains if talks fail. Gold is being pushed along the same lines, as US is backing Georgia in the conflict, and some worry that it might be forced into another war.
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Friday, August 8, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently trading flat as traders are looking past Friday and towards the weekend, and who can blame them this has been a long and risk filled week. While there is no economic data out of the UK this morning, it seems like traders are embracing the reversal in the currency market that has been pushing the British Pound lower, making the FTSE an attractive investment to the US investors.
Oil seems to find a nice level of support before the 115$ per barrel mark, in fact some traders are talking about a technical rebound to the 125 level, which is being postponed due to the strength of the US dollar. Most commodities are going to suffer while the US dollar gains strength mainly due to the fact that those commodities are priced in US dollars
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Oil seems to find a nice level of support before the 115$ per barrel mark, in fact some traders are talking about a technical rebound to the 125 level, which is being postponed due to the strength of the US dollar. Most commodities are going to suffer while the US dollar gains strength mainly due to the fact that those commodities are priced in US dollars
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Tuesday, August 5, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a higher opening as traders are hoping that the 3% gains in the US equities market will translate into gains for the FTSE. While there isnt any economic data out of the UK today, traders are getting themselves positioned ahead of the BOE interest rate decision due on Thursday.
Oil finally broke through the 120 dollar as traders realized that the hurricane is not going to hit any of the oil producing areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Add to this that we are almost finished with the summer driving season, we can see oil dropping below 110 dollars by the end of the month.
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Oil finally broke through the 120 dollar as traders realized that the hurricane is not going to hit any of the oil producing areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Add to this that we are almost finished with the summer driving season, we can see oil dropping below 110 dollars by the end of the month.
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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Update
Traders are buoyant today as one storm (tropical) looks as though it
will miss vital US oil rigs and another storm (economic) might just pass
without reaping total destruction on the global financial system.
European markets led the way today and there has been some welcome
follow on buying from US indices. Banks are amongst the top performers
today with RBS, Barclays and HSBC pushing to their highest levels since
June. Better than expected numbers from scandal hit Societe Generale and
a Government cash injection for Northern Rock have helped push the
sector higher.
Elsewhere, the US service industries index contracted less than expected
and ISM non manufacturing prices retreated to 80.8 from 84.5. This
coupled with oil slipping below $120 has cheered markets as they signal
that inflation may be abating.
Later this evening we have the all important FOMC interest rate
decision. Futures markets are currently pricing in a 93% chance of a no
change verdict and a 7% chance of quarter point rise. For September's
meeting, the futures markets are pricing in a 66% chance of no change
and 32% chance of a raise, while October's futures markets are implying
a 41% chance of a quarter point hike. So while today's meeting is almost
a forgone conclusion, the outcomes of the next couple of meetings are
not so clear cut. Markets are forward looking animals so the excitement
today will come with traders focusing on the possible outcomes for the
September and October meetings. Although a quarter point rate hike in
the next three months seems likely, any sign of this being less likely
than previously expected, or at least a delay in rate hikes and markets
could push even higher into the close. With oil and commodity prices
receding, this may not be out of the question.
BetOnMarkets
will miss vital US oil rigs and another storm (economic) might just pass
without reaping total destruction on the global financial system.
European markets led the way today and there has been some welcome
follow on buying from US indices. Banks are amongst the top performers
today with RBS, Barclays and HSBC pushing to their highest levels since
June. Better than expected numbers from scandal hit Societe Generale and
a Government cash injection for Northern Rock have helped push the
sector higher.
Elsewhere, the US service industries index contracted less than expected
and ISM non manufacturing prices retreated to 80.8 from 84.5. This
coupled with oil slipping below $120 has cheered markets as they signal
that inflation may be abating.
Later this evening we have the all important FOMC interest rate
decision. Futures markets are currently pricing in a 93% chance of a no
change verdict and a 7% chance of quarter point rise. For September's
meeting, the futures markets are pricing in a 66% chance of no change
and 32% chance of a raise, while October's futures markets are implying
a 41% chance of a quarter point hike. So while today's meeting is almost
a forgone conclusion, the outcomes of the next couple of meetings are
not so clear cut. Markets are forward looking animals so the excitement
today will come with traders focusing on the possible outcomes for the
September and October meetings. Although a quarter point rate hike in
the next three months seems likely, any sign of this being less likely
than previously expected, or at least a delay in rate hikes and markets
could push even higher into the close. With oil and commodity prices
receding, this may not be out of the question.
BetOnMarkets
Monday, August 4, 2008
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently indicating a lower opening, while traders are awaiting the release of the UK Industrial Production number. Analysts are expecting nominal growth of 0.1% for the month of June, which would possibly signal a change for the industry which has contracted almost 2% this year. A number which is stronger then expected will give the FTSE the boost its been lacking in the last few weeks.
Oil took it on the chin yesterday, after traders realized that the threat of the latest hurricane was all talk. Oil is currently sitting on a strong support level at 120.00 dollars per barrel, however if the last few days were any indication, oil will be pressured lower possibly revisiting the 115 dollar mark before more buyers will be found.
BetOnMarkets
Oil took it on the chin yesterday, after traders realized that the threat of the latest hurricane was all talk. Oil is currently sitting on a strong support level at 120.00 dollars per barrel, however if the last few days were any indication, oil will be pressured lower possibly revisiting the 115 dollar mark before more buyers will be found.
BetOnMarkets
Economic calendar for week 4th - 8th August 2008.
BetOnMarkets Weekly Briefing
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 4th - 8th August 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week 4th - 8th August 2008
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.
Monday Aug 4th:
EU - 08:30 - Sentix Investor Confidence.
UK - 08:30 - Construction PMI.
EU - 09.00 - PPI M/M.
US - 11.30 - Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y.
US - 12.30 - Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US - 12.30 - Personal Spending M/M.
US - 12.30 - Personal Income M/M.
US - 14.00 - Factory Orders M/M.
Tuesday August 5th:
UK - Tentative - Halifax HPI M/M.
EU - 08:00 - Services PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
US - 14:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite.
US - 18:15 - FOMC Statement.
US - 18:15 - Federal Funds Rate.
US - 23:01 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence.
US - 23:01 - NIESR GDP Estimate.
Wednesday August 6th:
UK - 09:30 - BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday August 7th:
GE - 06:00 - Trade Balance.
FR - 06:45 - Trade Balance.
GE - 10:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 11:00 - Official Bank Rate.
UK - Tentative - Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
EU - 12:30 - ECB Press Conference.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 14:00 - Pending Home Sales M/M.
US - 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US - 19:00 - Consumer Credit M/M.
Friday August 8th:
FR - 06:45 - French Government Budget Balance.
US - 12:30 - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Prelim Unit Labor Costs Q/Q.
US - 14:00 - Wholesale Inventories M/M.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
As another volatile trading week draws to a close, it is interesting to note that almost no major stock market made any traction in either direction over the last 5 trading days. The Dow swung over 450 points from high to low and the FTSE 200 points, yet both markets closed virtually flat for the week.
It was a week of dire earnings figures with UK banks posting huge year on year profit reductions. Lloyds TSBs pre tax profits fell 70% while HBOS saw returns drop by an almost identical figure. In what will be their last report as in independent company, Alliance & Leicesters profits evaporated by an incredible 99%. In the US, Merrill Lynch was punished heavily for releasing details of a write down announcement less than a fortnight after their earnings figures. It wasnt just the banks feeling the pinch, British Airways reported an 88% slump in profits and BT saw its shares fall to their lowest level for five years.
On a positive side stocks soared on Tuesday and Wednesday, as oil fell further towards $120 on speculation that a slowing global economy will check demand. It was to be further bad news for hedge funds, who recently endured their worse month for many years, as the leveraged oil trades unwound with falling prices. Stalling oil prices were also not helping BP, as it pulled back further from previous highs. The headline results were impressive, but a significant proportion of those profits come from their Russian joint venture, which looks like it will be torn apart over the coming months.
Elsewhere the US house price collapse continues to accelerate. The S&P/Case-Schiller Index shows annual declines in prices of existing single family homes of 15.8%. With UK politicians discussing plans to help out mortgage lenders, they would be well served to use the US housing market as an advanced proxy of what could happen in the UK.
Initial reactions to Fridays US Nonfarm payrolls were positive as the headline figures fell less than expected. However, on close inspection, the figures still make grim reading. The US unemployment rate increased to 5.7%, which was 0.1% above expectations, and since December 2007 463,000 jobs have been lost. Although the jobs report was the Friday's big story, GMs earnings announcements was a big drag on US and by consequence, UK indices. General Motors announced a $15.5 billion loss, which when you consider GM has a market cap of just $6.3 billion, the loss equates to around 2.5 times the net worth of the company.
Next week is unlikely to bring an end to the recent volatility with some major top tier economic announcements due. On Tuesday morning we have UK manufacturing data and services PMI, followed by US ISM non-manufacturing composite early in the afternoon. On Tuesday evening, we have the big one, the US interest statement. Although a no change is largely expected, as ever it is expectations for the future that will excite. It is Europes turn on Thursday, with the release of the MPC and ECB statements. Both are again expected to be no change, but the statements and overall timbre will be analysed and re-analysed with regard to future expectations.
Markets have been working themselves out of oversold territory and now it is crunch time. The recovery since the lows of July, could be the bulls last rally for the short term, unless any gains can actually be held over the next week or so. What has been impressive about the last two or three weeks is the bulls ability to rally markets in the face of dark news flows. Now the rally has stalled, there may not be enough momentum left to withstand further bleak economic headlines.
Next week has the potential to be another volatile week, especially with so many top tier economic announcements due. A double touch trade returns a profit if both pre determined levels are touched within the time frame specified. A double touch trade on the FTSE 100 predicting that the 5450 and 5100 levels will be hit over the next 51 days could return 140%.
BetOnMarkets
Contents This Week:
Economic calendar for week 4th - 8th August 2008.
Commentary: The week ahead.
Economic Calendar for week 4th - 8th August 2008
PLEASE NOTE - All times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.
Monday Aug 4th:
EU - 08:30 - Sentix Investor Confidence.
UK - 08:30 - Construction PMI.
EU - 09.00 - PPI M/M.
US - 11.30 - Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y.
US - 12.30 - Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US - 12.30 - Personal Spending M/M.
US - 12.30 - Personal Income M/M.
US - 14.00 - Factory Orders M/M.
Tuesday August 5th:
UK - Tentative - Halifax HPI M/M.
EU - 08:00 - Services PMI.
UK - 08:30 - Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 08:30 - Services PMI.
EU - 09:00 - Retail Sales M/M.
US - 14:00 - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite.
US - 18:15 - FOMC Statement.
US - 18:15 - Federal Funds Rate.
US - 23:01 - Nationwide Consumer Confidence.
US - 23:01 - NIESR GDP Estimate.
Wednesday August 6th:
UK - 09:30 - BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
GE - 10:00 - Factory Orders M/M.
US - 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday August 7th:
GE - 06:00 - Trade Balance.
FR - 06:45 - Trade Balance.
GE - 10:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
UK - 11:00 - Official Bank Rate.
UK - Tentative - Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
EU - 12:30 - ECB Press Conference.
US - 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US - 14:00 - Pending Home Sales M/M.
US - 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US - 19:00 - Consumer Credit M/M.
Friday August 8th:
FR - 06:45 - French Government Budget Balance.
US - 12:30 - Prelim Nonfarm Productivity Q/Q.
US - 12:30 - Prelim Unit Labor Costs Q/Q.
US - 14:00 - Wholesale Inventories M/M.
EU - Europe wide
FR - France
UK - United Kingdom
US - United States
GE - Germany
The week ahead.
As another volatile trading week draws to a close, it is interesting to note that almost no major stock market made any traction in either direction over the last 5 trading days. The Dow swung over 450 points from high to low and the FTSE 200 points, yet both markets closed virtually flat for the week.
It was a week of dire earnings figures with UK banks posting huge year on year profit reductions. Lloyds TSBs pre tax profits fell 70% while HBOS saw returns drop by an almost identical figure. In what will be their last report as in independent company, Alliance & Leicesters profits evaporated by an incredible 99%. In the US, Merrill Lynch was punished heavily for releasing details of a write down announcement less than a fortnight after their earnings figures. It wasnt just the banks feeling the pinch, British Airways reported an 88% slump in profits and BT saw its shares fall to their lowest level for five years.
On a positive side stocks soared on Tuesday and Wednesday, as oil fell further towards $120 on speculation that a slowing global economy will check demand. It was to be further bad news for hedge funds, who recently endured their worse month for many years, as the leveraged oil trades unwound with falling prices. Stalling oil prices were also not helping BP, as it pulled back further from previous highs. The headline results were impressive, but a significant proportion of those profits come from their Russian joint venture, which looks like it will be torn apart over the coming months.
Elsewhere the US house price collapse continues to accelerate. The S&P/Case-Schiller Index shows annual declines in prices of existing single family homes of 15.8%. With UK politicians discussing plans to help out mortgage lenders, they would be well served to use the US housing market as an advanced proxy of what could happen in the UK.
Initial reactions to Fridays US Nonfarm payrolls were positive as the headline figures fell less than expected. However, on close inspection, the figures still make grim reading. The US unemployment rate increased to 5.7%, which was 0.1% above expectations, and since December 2007 463,000 jobs have been lost. Although the jobs report was the Friday's big story, GMs earnings announcements was a big drag on US and by consequence, UK indices. General Motors announced a $15.5 billion loss, which when you consider GM has a market cap of just $6.3 billion, the loss equates to around 2.5 times the net worth of the company.
Next week is unlikely to bring an end to the recent volatility with some major top tier economic announcements due. On Tuesday morning we have UK manufacturing data and services PMI, followed by US ISM non-manufacturing composite early in the afternoon. On Tuesday evening, we have the big one, the US interest statement. Although a no change is largely expected, as ever it is expectations for the future that will excite. It is Europes turn on Thursday, with the release of the MPC and ECB statements. Both are again expected to be no change, but the statements and overall timbre will be analysed and re-analysed with regard to future expectations.
Markets have been working themselves out of oversold territory and now it is crunch time. The recovery since the lows of July, could be the bulls last rally for the short term, unless any gains can actually be held over the next week or so. What has been impressive about the last two or three weeks is the bulls ability to rally markets in the face of dark news flows. Now the rally has stalled, there may not be enough momentum left to withstand further bleak economic headlines.
Next week has the potential to be another volatile week, especially with so many top tier economic announcements due. A double touch trade returns a profit if both pre determined levels are touched within the time frame specified. A double touch trade on the FTSE 100 predicting that the 5450 and 5100 levels will be hit over the next 51 days could return 140%.
BetOnMarkets
BetOnMarkets Morning Update
The FTSE is currently trading slightly lower as traders are waiting for the release of the Constructions Managers Purchasing Index. Analysts are expecting another decline, and some traders are expecting an even worse number. We expect the negative news to hit the market like a brick, pushing the FTSE lower while traders try to figure out what can the BOE do to help the British economy.
Gold was hit real hard when the US employment numbers came out better then expected, while the economy lost jobs for the 8th straight month, these negative news were already priced in, as a result gold actually was sold off on the strength of the US dollar. We expect for gold to be very volatile for the next few days as more economic news are released, which will give us a glimpse of the US economy, and what will the US Fed do next. Oil which has been trading down from its all time high set in July is being affected by the cut backs in the airline industry, we believe that oil will break through the 120 dollars per barrel mark this week.
BetOnMarkets
Gold was hit real hard when the US employment numbers came out better then expected, while the economy lost jobs for the 8th straight month, these negative news were already priced in, as a result gold actually was sold off on the strength of the US dollar. We expect for gold to be very volatile for the next few days as more economic news are released, which will give us a glimpse of the US economy, and what will the US Fed do next. Oil which has been trading down from its all time high set in July is being affected by the cut backs in the airline industry, we believe that oil will break through the 120 dollars per barrel mark this week.
BetOnMarkets
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