BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating lower opening as traders wait for the release of the net consumer credit numbers. While the Bank of England can cut interest rates to help the economy, none of that really matters if the chartered banks are not going to lend that money to consumers or companies. If the numbers come out worse then expected, the FTSE is likely to end the week on a negative note.

Crude oil is set for a weekly decline of 11 percent, as concerns about a deeper U.S. recession outweighed OPEC pledges to increase output cuts. Later today, the US GDP numbers will be released, and analysts are expecting a fall of more then 5%. Should the number come out worse, oil could end the week below the 40 dollars per barrel level.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4170.6 (-15.7)
CAC40 2989.10 (-18.40)
DAX30 4390.3 (-29.5)
DOW: 8182 (+37)
SP500 849.73 (+4.00)
Gold: 902.10 (-4.35)
Oil: 41.56 (+0.01)

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

After a positive first half of the week, global equities are serving a reminder of just how difficult bear markets can be. Traders are quick to grab whatever short term profits they have made, making it difficult for rallies to build momentum. Banking shares have reversed a good chunk of the gains made over the last few days, but are still holding above the closing levels from last week. Today worry isn’t specifically related to complex financial deficits, fears are more in relation to general analysis that banks are not the place to be in during a recession. With house prices continuing to plunge on both sides of the Atlantic, rising unemployment and an increased risk of default on loans, the recession itself is enough put pressure on banks. This is before you take into account their dire capital adequacy positions.

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Equities shot out of the starting gate today on both sides of the Atlantic. In the UK, it was Lloyd’s turn to join the party after a bullish note from Citi Group whet investors’ appetite for the new banking giant. With a fundamental valuation of financial shares being difficult to say the least, confidence has been the currency of choice ever since the credit crisis broke. Today, confidence is working for the banks as the idea of nationalisation is shoved to the sidelines for now.

US markets launched higher from the open in large part due to the bad bank plan announced by the Obama Government. Such a opening large gap higher is unheard of on a Fed day, normally rate decision days are tight affairs before the announcement. No-one expects the Fed to cut rates this afternoon, but the policy statement will certainly be a market mover and if the markets like what they hear, we could push even higher off the 2008 lows.

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BetOnMarkets Morning Report

The FTSE is currently indicating higher opening, as traders hope that todays slew of economic data will help shed a positive light on the world economy. While there wont be any UK data today, we will be paying attention to the EU CPI inflation index along with the US interest rate decision this later this afternoon. Should the CPI numbers come out better then expected, the FTSE could get a nice boost.

Commodity prices took a tumble yesterday as the global recession eroded demand for energy, metals and grains. The Energy Department announces the inventory numbers tomorrow, and rumors indicate that stockpiles probably rose again. Look for oil prices to test the 40 dollars per barrel level by the end of the week.

Predicted opens as of 06:00 GMT
FTSE: 4222.1 (+32.3)
CAC40 3024.30 (+73.00)
DAX30 4361.1 (+30.1)
DOW: 8272 (+108)
SP500 858.98 (+17.00)
Gold: 894.95 (-1.95)
Oil: 41.83 (+0.22)

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BetOnMarkets Afternoon Report

Financials are still enjoying some follow on buying, but gains have been trimmed from earlier in the day. The main culprit for today’s fall in the FTSE, for once isn’t the banks, but the energy sector. BP and Shell make up a sizeable chunk of the UK’s benchmark index, so with crude down around 5% on the day, it is always going to be difficult for the FTSE to make traction.

After the excitement over yesterday’s new home sales coming in at better than expected, the US housing slump is still showing of signs of abating. Sales of homes may have increased more than expected by volume, but prices are continuing to plumb new depths. The 10 and 20 city indices are down over 25% from their peak and over 18% on last year. House prices are now back to 2004 levels with further to go if the current trend line is anything to go by.

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